| Project/Area Number |
15K03350
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic theory
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo (2017-2018)
Ministry of Finance, Policy Research Institute (2015-2016) |
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Principal Investigator |
NIREI Makoto 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 准教授 (60530079)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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| Keywords | 景気循環 / 物価の安定性 / 自己組織化 / 最適インフレ率 / 内生的景気循環 / 資産市場の安定性 / 資産・所得分布 / 異質的動学一般均衡モデル / 物価上昇率 / 内生的景気循環理論 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this project, we successfully account for the positive relation between inflation rate and inflation volatility. The relation has been known since Okun (1971), but there has been no widely accepted explanation for the phenomenon. We construct a new model of endogenous aggregate price fluctuations that exhibit the positive association between the level and volatility in inflation. The paper was presented at Hokkaido University, Bank of Japan, and Hitotsubashi University, and accepted for presentation at Society of Economic Dynamics Annual Meeting and Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory. This project also generated a paper on power-law tails of asset price fluctuations. The paper is now under 2nd-round revise-and-resubmit at a major field journal Theoretical Economics. Finally, this project produced several papers that deal with other related topics such as supply chain disruption and intangible capitals in emerging industries.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究は、景気循環の根本要因として理論化が困難だった内生的要因に光を当て、安定化政策の妥当性を基礎付けた。またインフレ率のレベルと振動の関係を新規に説明したことは、最適インフレ率という古い命題に新たな視点を与える政策的意義をもつ。本研究で鍵となる数理は、確率的累積現象がベキ的減衰を示すファットテールをもたらすことであるが、その導入は経済理論の新潮流であり、企業の相互作用から導いたのは本研究の独創である。
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