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Heterogeneous Expectations and Macroeconomic Stability under Adaptive Learning

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15K03372
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Economic theory
Research InstitutionKansai University

Principal Investigator

Nakagawa Ryuichi  関西大学, 経済学部, 教授 (60309614)

Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Keywords適応的学習 / 期待の安定性 / 期待の異質性 / 金融政策 / 情報の不完全性 / サンスポット均衡 / 学習の異質性 / サンスポット均衡の安定性 / 金融政策の有効性 / 金融市場の不完全性 / 均衡の安定性 / 金融政策のあり方
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research project has investigated the macroeconomic stability and monetary policy in the situation where agents form their expectations by "adaptive learning." In particular, this project focuses on the existence of heterogeneity in agents' learning.
This project has found that in the absence of imperfect information, sunspot equilibria are always unstable under adaptive learning. In the presence of imperfect information, on the other hand, sunspot equilibria can be stable. In this situation, aggressive monetary policy can prevent the possibility of sunspot equilibria. The project has also found the relationship between financial market imperfections and the stability of sunspot equilibria.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

第1に、国内のマクロ経済研究であまり注目されていない「適応的学習」の重要性を示すことができる。第2に、金融市場の状態や市場参加者の情報環境に注意を払うことの重要性を示すことができる。第3に、近年、活発に進められている日本のマクロ経済モデルの開発に対して、適応的学習とその異質性を導入することの重要性を示すことができる。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (21 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (5 results) Journal Article (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Open Access: 5 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results) Remarks (4 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] オレゴン大学(米国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] オレゴン大学(米国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] オレゴン大学(米国)

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] ロンドン・スクール・オブ・エコノミクス(英国)

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] オレゴン大学(米国)

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Equilibrium Indeterminacy under Forward-Looking Interest Rate Rules2019

    • Author(s)
      中川竜一
    • Journal Title

      Kansai University Review of Economics

      Volume: 21 Pages: 1-10

    • NAID

      120006583268

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning with Imperfect Information2019

    • Author(s)
      中川竜一
    • Journal Title

      Central Bank Communication Design Working Paper Series

      Volume: 005 Pages: 1-48

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning with Imperfect Information2018

    • Author(s)
      中川竜一
    • Journal Title

      Economic Society of Kansai University Working Paper Series

      Volume: F-88 Pages: 1-48

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 保険会社の貸出における横並び行動2018

    • Author(s)
      中川竜一
    • Journal Title

      経済論集(関西大学)

      Volume: 68 Pages: 1-25

    • NAID

      120006627672

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Stable Sunspot Equilibria with Private Information2016

    • Author(s)
      Bruce McGough and Ryuichi Nakagawa
    • Journal Title

      Economic Society of Kansai University Working Paper Series

      Volume: F-78

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Learnability of an Equilibrium with Private Information2015

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi Nakagawa
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

      Volume: 59 Pages: 58-74

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jedc.2015.06.010

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning with Imperfect Information2018

    • Author(s)
      中川竜一
    • Organizer
      Summer Workshop on Economic Theory
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Stable Sunspot Equilibria with Private Information2017

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      Faculty Work in Progress Seminar, London School of Economics and Political Science
    • Place of Presentation
      London, UK
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Stable Sunspot Equilibria with Private Information2016

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      Royal Economic Society 2016 Annual Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Sussex, UK
    • Year and Date
      2016-03-21
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Stable Sunspot Equilibria with Private Information2016

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      Midwest Macro Meetings Spring 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      Purdue University, USA
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Stable Sunspot Equilibria with Private Information2016

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      31st Annual Congress of the European Economic Association & 69th European Meeting of the Econometric Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Geneva, Switzerland
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Learnability of an Equilibrium with Private Information2015

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      Western Economic Association International 90th Annual Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Honolulu, USA
    • Year and Date
      2015-07-01
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks] Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under ...

    • URL

      http://www.centralbank.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/2019/01/31/stability-of-sunspot-equilibria-under-adaptive-learning-with-imperfect-information/

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] Equilibrium Indeterminacy under ...

    • URL

      http://hdl.handle.net/10112/16582

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 保険会社の貸出における横並び行動

    • URL

      http://hdl.handle.net/10112/16978

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 中川竜一ホームページ

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2022-02-16  

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