Global CGE Analysis of trade and investment liberalizations in EPA
| Project/Area Number |
15K03442
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Nagoya City University |
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Principal Investigator |
Itakura Ken 名古屋市立大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (90405217)
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| Research Collaborator |
Oyamada Kazuhiko
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
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| Keywords | 貿易政策 / 経済連携協定 / CGE / 応用一般均衡分析 / 自由貿易協定 / 投資協定 / 計算可能な一般均衡モデル / 応用一般均衡モデル / CGEモデル / FTA / TPP / heterogeneous firms / GTAP / RCEP / EPA / 貿易自由化 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
As economic interdependency has deepened in the world economy with increasing number of FTAs, there have been burgeoning literature estimating economic impact of FTAs. However, few studies have analyzed the FTAs' liberalization effects of trade in goods and services as well as investment by applying dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We developed a dynamic global CGE model and constructed multiple policy scenarios for 2011-2035, and we estimated the economic impact of mega FTAs such as TPP and RCEP. Using a gravity model of FDI inflow and bilateral investment treaty, we applied the resulting estimates to our policy simulations of FTAs. We quantitatively identified FTA's liberalization effect arising from reducing import tariffs and barriers in services trade, improving logistic of merchandise goods, investment commitment in the FTA's member countries. Among the liberalization effects, investment commitment significantly contributes to welfare gains.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究の学術的な意義は、FTAやEPAの経済効果分析で、貿易自由化の効果と投資自由化の効果を同時に推計する方法を開発応用した点にある。両効果の捕捉には、多地域・多部門を構成要素とし、生産-貿易-消費-投資を表現する応用経済モデル、それに対応するデータが必要となる。また投資と資本の変化は動学的な分析枠組みを求める。これらの条件下で、EPAによる投資環境整備と海外直接投資を実証的な関係としてモデルに導入した点にも学術的な意義がある。
社会的な意義は、EPAによる影響を国別産業別の経済効果として明らかにすることにあり、また経済厚生の変化を推計することで、EPAを巡る議論や政策形成に貢献することにある。
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(25 results)
