On Secular Stagnation: Mechanism, Macroeconomic Consequences, and Roles of Monetary and Fiscal Policies
| Project/Area Number |
15K03454
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Sophia University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
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| Keywords | 長期停滞 / 非伝統的金融政策 / 中央銀行 / 国債管理 / 自然言語処理 / 民主主義の赤字 / 最適資本課税 / 資本課税 / マイナス金利政策 / 労働分配率 / 最適所得課税 / 家計金融 / 消費不況 / 時間利用 / 自己実現的期待 / 期待のコーディネーション / 政策割当 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
There are four issues we have addressed related to secular stagnation. First, we applied two methods of natural language processing to documents at the regular press conferences of the Bank of Japan's Governors: Masaaki Shirakawa and Haruhiko Kuroda. Gov. Shirakawa's discretionary wordings announced Delphic effects, while Gov. Kuroda had changed the tone from target- and instrument-oriented wordings to discretionary ones since the negative interest rate policy was introduced. Second, from a viewpoint of debt management, we constructed models of legal restrictions on negative interest rate policy and central bank's balance sheet under a new normal. Third, we explained a political-economy model of why elected central bankers are allowed to be democratic deficit. Forth, we constructed a model of optimal capital taxation with parental transfers to kids, where income inequality does matter.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究は，長期停滞の下で混迷の度を深める金融財政政策の役割について，自然言語処理，国債管理，政治経済学，最適資本課税の観点から，新しい視点を提供している．長期停滞がもたらしつつある中央銀行という社会制度および金融政策の役割の変化に即して，理論的な分析を行い，金融と財政の今後の展望について現実的な回答を与えている．
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(19 results)
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[Book] Hawks and Doves: Deeds and Words - Economics and Politics of Monetary Policymaking, CEPR eBook2018
Author(s)
Eijffinger, Masciandaro, Goodhart, Lastra, Issing, Raes, Bordo, Istrefi, Lombardi, Siklos, Amand, Riboni, Ruge-Murcia, Capie, Wood, Blinder, Ehrmann, de Haan, Jansen, Cukierman, Orphanides, Coenen, Gaballo, Hoffmann, Nakov, Nardelli, Persson, Strasser, Yosuke Takeda, Keida, Hansen, McMahon
Total Pages
162
Publisher
CEPR Press
ISBN
9781912179091
Related Report
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