On Secular Stagnation: Mechanism, Macroeconomic Consequences, and Roles of Monetary and Fiscal Policies

• Project/Area Number: 15K03454
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: Sophia University
• Principal Investigator: Takeda Yosuke 上智大学, 経済学部, 教授 (20266068)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
• Keywords: 長期停滞 / 非伝統的金融政策 / 中央銀行 / 国債管理 / 自然言語処理 / 民主主義の赤字 / 最適資本課税 / 資本課税 / マイナス金利政策 / 労働分配率 / 最適所得課税 / 家計金融 / 消費不況 / 時間利用 / 自己実現的期待 / 期待のコーディネーション / 政策割当

Outline of Final Research Achievements

There are four issues we have addressed related to secular stagnation. First, we applied two methods of natural language processing to documents at the regular press conferences of the Bank of Japan's Governors: Masaaki Shirakawa and Haruhiko Kuroda. Gov. Shirakawa's discretionary wordings announced Delphic effects, while Gov. Kuroda had changed the tone from target- and instrument-oriented wordings to discretionary ones since the negative interest rate policy was introduced. Second, from a viewpoint of debt management, we constructed models of legal restrictions on negative interest rate policy and central bank's balance sheet under a new normal. Third, we explained a political-economy model of why elected central bankers are allowed to be democratic deficit. Forth, we constructed a model of optimal capital taxation with parental transfers to kids, where income inequality does matter.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は，長期停滞の下で混迷の度を深める金融財政政策の役割について，自然言語処理，国債管理，政治経済学，最適資本課税の観点から，新しい視点を提供している．長期停滞がもたらしつつある中央銀行という社会制度および金融政策の役割の変化に即して，理論的な分析を行い，金融と財政の今後の展望について現実的な回答を与えている．

Research Products

• [Journal Article] 現代における中央銀行総裁の条件ーデジタル通貨の時代を前にしてー (2018)
  • Author(s): 竹田陽介
  • Journal Title: 月刊誌『改革者』 Volume: 2018年3月号 Pages: 38-41
• [Journal Article] 民主主義の赤字としての中央銀行を誰が掌るべきか (2018)
  • Author(s): 竹田陽介
  • Journal Title: ニッセイ基礎研『基礎研レター』 Volume: No. 2018-03-15
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] Computer-based narrative analysis of the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda (2017)
  • Author(s): Yosuke Takeda, Masayuki Keida
  • Journal Title: VoxEU Column Volume: 18 June 2017
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] マイナス金利政策の法的規制理論 (2017)
  • Author(s): 竹田陽介
  • Journal Title: 金融経済研究 Volume: 39 Pages: 76-85
• [Journal Article] A Semantic Analysis of Monetary Shamanism: A case of the BOJ's Governor Haruhiko Kuroda (2017)
  • Author(s): Masayuki Keida, Yosuke Takeda
  • Journal Title: Discussion papers, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Volume: 17011 Pages: 1-24
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] A Semantic Analysis of Monetary Shamanism: A Case of the BOJ's Governor Haruhiko Kuroda (2019)
  • Author(s): Masayuki Keida, Yosuke Takeda
  • Organizer: AEA Poster Session, Annual Meeting of the 2019 American Economic Association, Atlanta
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Capital Income Taxation with Parental Incentives (2019)
  • Author(s): Yuta Saito, Yosuke Takeda
  • Organizer: AEA Poster Session, Annual Meeting of the 2019 American Economic Association, Atlanta
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A Note on the 'New Normal' of Central Bank's Balance Sheet (2018)
  • Author(s): Yosuke Takeda, Yuki Fukumoto, Yasuhide Yajima
  • Organizer: Fourteenth Annual Conference, Asia-Pacific Economic Association
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A Note on the 'New Normal' of Central Bank's Balance Sheet (2017)
  • Author(s): Yosuke Takeda
  • Organizer: 日本銀行金融研究所セミナー
• [Presentation] マイナス金利の法的規制理論 (2016)
  • Author(s): 竹田陽介
  • Organizer: 日本金融学会 2016 年度秋季大会中央銀行パネル『マイナス金利政策の評価』
  • Place of Presentation: 関西大学（大阪府・吹田市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-10-15
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 今後の日本経済のBig Pictures (2016)
  • Author(s): 竹田陽介
  • Organizer: 「今後の日本経済研究に関するパネルディスカッション」シンポジウム『深尾京司・宮川努両教授の還暦を記念して 経済成長，生産性，無形資産，グローバリゼーション：今後の日本経済』
  • Place of Presentation: 一橋大学千代田キャンパス（東京都・千代田区）
  • Year and Date: 2016-09-07
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Optimal Taxation in an Intra-Household Model of Time Inconsistent Preference, Merit Goods and Strategic Bequests (2016)
  • Author(s): Yosuke Takeda, Yuta Saito
  • Organizer: Western Economic Association International, 12th International Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
  • Year and Date: 2016-01-07
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Book] Hawks and Doves: Deeds and Words - Economics and Politics of Monetary Policymaking, CEPR eBook (2018)
  • Author(s): Eijffinger, Masciandaro, Goodhart, Lastra, Issing, Raes, Bordo, Istrefi, Lombardi, Siklos, Amand, Riboni, Ruge-Murcia, Capie, Wood, Blinder, Ehrmann, de Haan, Jansen, Cukierman, Orphanides, Coenen, Gaballo, Hoffmann, Nakov, Nardelli, Persson, Strasser, Yosuke Takeda, Keida, Hansen, McMahon
  • Total Pages: 162
  • Publisher: CEPR Press
  • ISBN: 9781912179091
• [Book] マイナス金利下における金融・不動産市場の読み方 (2017)
  • Author(s): 西村清彦・赤城威志・茨木秀行・大越利之・北坂真一・小松英二・竹田陽介・田邉信之・濱尾泰・堀江康熙・吉野薫・沓澤隆司・佐久間誠・矢嶋康次・瀬古美喜・隅田和人・直井道生・妹尾芳彦
  • Total Pages: 252
  • Publisher: 東洋経済新報社
• [Remarks] APEA 2018
  • URL: http://www.apeaweb.org/confer/LA18/papers/Takeda_Yosuke-a.pdf
• [Remarks] AEA Poster Session
  • URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2019/preliminary/1069?q=eNqrVipOLS7OzM8LqSxIVbKqhnGVrAxrawGlCArI
• [Remarks] Computer-based narrative analysis
  • URL: https://voxeu.org/article/central-bank-communication-strategies
• [Remarks] 民主主義の赤字としての中央銀行を誰が掌るべきか
  • URL: http://www.nli-research.co.jp/files/topics/58155_ext_18_0.pdf
• [Remarks] RIETI Discussion Paper Series 17-E-011
  • URL: http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/17e011.pdf