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Study on model risk management method in multi-period and multi-asset models

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15K03544
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Money/ Finance
Research InstitutionKyushu University

Principal Investigator

Matsumoto Koichi  九州大学, 経済学研究院, 教授 (30380687)

Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Keywordsモデルリスク / 数理ファイナンス / 金融工学 / リスク管理 / デリバティブ / リスク測度
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Financial institutions have various assets and Mathematical models represent the asset fluctuations and they are essential tools for risk management. However, there is no mathematical model that completely represents the real market. Therefore, financial institutions have a potential risk of the uncertain model. We call it the model risk. In this study, the risk management of derivatives is studied under the assumption that the model risk exists in a multi-period and multi-asset model. We study the minimization of the hedging error and give the robust hedging strategy. Furthermore, when the model is a multi-asset or multi-period model, the amount of calculation is much larger than that of a one-asset and one-period model. We consider the feasibility of the numerical calculation and show a risk management method with a good balance between theory and practicality.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

数理モデルの急速な複雑化に伴い,金融機関の抱えるモデルリスクは急激に増大しており,近年の金融危機の要因の1つはモデルリスク顕在化と捉えることができる.規制監督当局はモデルリスク管理の重要性を認識し始めているが,モデルリスク管理の理論研究は発展段階であり,実務の要請に応じられる理論や金融技術は確立していない.多資産,多期間のデリバティブのモデルリスク管理方法の研究によって,金融市場の潜在的モデルリスクを明らかにすることができると考えられる.私はこれらの研究を通じて,世界経済の安定的成長に貢献することで,社会全体の発展に貢献したいと考えている.

Report

(6 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (13 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (6 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 2 results) Presentation (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Imperial College London(英国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Hedging Derivatives on Two Assets with Model Risk2020

    • Author(s)
      Koichi Matsumoto, Keita Shimizu
    • Journal Title

      Asia-Pacific Financial Markets

      Volume: 27, 1 Issue: 1 Pages: 83-95

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10690-019-09283-3

    • NAID

      40021872271

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Hedging Derivatives on Two Assets with Model Risk2019

    • Author(s)
      Koichi Matsumoto, Keita Shimizu
    • Journal Title

      Discussion Paper Series, Graduate School of Economics, Kyushu University

      Volume: 2019-1 Pages: 1-12

    • NAID

      40021872271

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Partial super-hedging of derivatives with model risk2017

    • Author(s)
      Koichi Matsumoto
    • Journal Title

      Japan Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics

      Volume: 34 Issue: 3 Pages: 811-831

    • DOI

      10.1007/s13160-017-0267-7

    • NAID

      210000171300

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Mean-variance hedging with model risk2017

    • Author(s)
      Koichi Matsumoto
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Financial Engineering

      Volume: 04 Issue: 04 Pages: 1750042-1750042

    • DOI

      10.1142/s2424786317500426

    • NAID

      40020654577

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Model Risk of two Assets Derivatives2016

    • Author(s)
      Koichi Matsumoto, Maki Ichikawa
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 47th ISCIE International Symposium on Stochastic Systems Theory and Its Applications

      Volume: 1 Pages: 144-153

    • NAID

      130005277607

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Mean-Variance Hedging with Model Risk2015

    • Author(s)
      Koichi Matsumoto
    • Journal Title

      Discussion Paper Series, Graduate School of Economics, Kyushu University

      Volume: 2015-4 Pages: 1-20

    • NAID

      40020654577

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Hedging Derivatives with Recalibration and Model Risk in a Multi-period Framework2020

    • Author(s)
      Koichi Matsumoto (joint work with Mark Davis and Seiya Goto)
    • Organizer
      Finance and Stochastics Seminar (Imperial College London)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] モデルリスクを考慮した二資産デリバティブのヘッジに関する研究2018

    • Author(s)
      Koichi Matsumoto, Keita Shimizu
    • Organizer
      第48回日本金融・証券計量・工学学会(JAFEE)大会(2017年度冬季)
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Optimal Hedging Strategy in an Uncertain Model2017

    • Author(s)
      Koichi Matsumoto
    • Organizer
      Winter Workshop on Operations Research (WWOR), Finance and Mathematics 2017
    • Place of Presentation
      Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2017-02-21
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Mean-Variance Hedging of Two-Asset Derivatives with Model Risk2017

    • Author(s)
      Koichi Matsumoto, Keita Shimizu
    • Organizer
      Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference (QMF) 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Mean-Variance Hedging with Model Risk2016

    • Author(s)
      Koichi Matsumoto
    • Organizer
      Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference (QMF) 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      Sydney, Australia
    • Year and Date
      2016-12-14
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Model Risk of two Assets Derivatives2015

    • Author(s)
      Koichi Matsumoto, Maki Ichikawa
    • Organizer
      The 47th ISCIE International Symposium on Stochastic Systems Theory and Its Applications (SSS’15)
    • Place of Presentation
      Honolulu, United States
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-05
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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