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Factor analysis of Japan's current account movement

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15K03557
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Money/ Finance
Research InstitutionMeiji Gakuin University

Principal Investigator

SASAKI YURI  明治学院大学, 経済学部, 教授 (10272767)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 吉田 裕司  滋賀大学, 経済学部, 教授 (40309737)
Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords経常収支 / 貿易収支 / 外国為替相場のパススルー / 輸入のパススルー / 価格弾力性 / コアCPI / インフレーションターゲット / 為替相場 / パススルー / 輸入価格 / 企業物価指数 / 金融政策の効果 / 量的緩和 / TVP-VAR / 金融政策 / 輸入 / HS分類 / 関税データ / 所得弾力性 / 海外生産 / 所得効果 / 価格効果
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, we conducted a theoretical and empirical analysis of the exchange rate pass through into import and export prices in various forms. First, a macro analysis was conducted by classifying Japan's import and export industries into about 100 industries and examining the factors that affect Japan's trade balance. Next, we examined the impact of foreign exchange rates on Japanese consumer price index, and showed that from around 2010, the depreciation of the yen have had a slight impact on the core CPI. The effect is very little, that one percent depreciation of the yen raised the inflation rate by only 0.02%. But the huge depreciation of the yen in 2012 might affect core CPI.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、経常収支の変動要因分析である。主な変動要因は、為替相場の影響、価格弾力性(価格が変化したときに数量がどれだけ変化するか)、所得弾力性(所得が変化したときに数量がどれだけ変化するか)である。分析の前半では、日本の輸出入について、これらの要因を分析したところ、リーマンショックの時期を境に、変動要因が変化してきていることがわかった。分析の後半では主に為替相場の影響について調べた。特に、日本の金融政策がインフレ率を上昇させようとしていることと関連させて、為替相場が日本の消費者物価指数に与える影響を調べた。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (20 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015

All Journal Article (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Open Access: 4 results,  Peer Reviewed: 3 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 2 results) Presentation (14 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results)

  • [Journal Article] 「為替相場が価格に反映されるパススルー効果―日本の輸入のパススルーは低下しているか―」2019

    • Author(s)
      佐々木百合
    • Journal Title

      フィナンシャルレビュー

      Volume: 136号 Pages: 118-143

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Exchange rate pass-through on Japanese prices: Import price, producer price, and core CPI,"2019

    • Author(s)
      SASAKI Yuri, YOSHIDA Yushi & Piotr Kansho OTSUBO
    • Journal Title

      Discussion papers , Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)

      Volume: 19078 Pages: 1-30

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 為替相場が価格に反映されるパススルー効果―日本の輸入のパススルーは低下しているか―2019

    • Author(s)
      佐々木百合
    • Journal Title

      フィナンシャル・レビュー

      Volume: 136 Pages: 118-143

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Decomposition of Japan's Trade Balance2017

    • Author(s)
      Yuri Sasaki, Yushi Yoshida
    • Journal Title

      International Review of Economics & Finance

      Volume: 印刷中 Pages: 507-537

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.iref.2017.12.007

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Factor Decomposition of Japan's Trade Balance2017

    • Author(s)
      Yuri Sasaki Yushi Yoshida
    • Journal Title

      RIETI Discussion papaer

      Volume: 17-E-042

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 日本の自動車輸出価格への為替相場のパススルーとマーケットパワー2017

    • Author(s)
      佐々木百合
    • Journal Title

      社会イノベーション研究

      Volume: 第12巻1号 Pages: 403-432

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Exchange rate pass-through on Japanese prices: Import price, producer price2019

    • Author(s)
      Yuri Sasaki
    • Organizer
      Annual Meeting of Asia Pacific Economic Association, August 1st, 2019, Fukuoka University
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Exchange rate pass-through on Japanese prices: Import price, producer price2019

    • Author(s)
      Yuri Sasaki
    • Organizer
      The 3rd International Conference on Research in Economics and Social Science, November 29, 2019, Shiga University.
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Exchange rate pass-through on Japanese prices: Import price, producer price2019

    • Author(s)
      Yuri Sasaki
    • Organizer
      RIETI-IWEP-CESSA Joint-Workshop, December 18, 2019, RIETI
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Decomposition of Japan's trade balance2019

    • Author(s)
      Yuri Sasaki
    • Organizer
      Western Economic Association International
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Structural Change of Japanese Trade2018

    • Author(s)
      Yuri Sasaki
    • Organizer
      Asia Pacific Economic Association
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Factor decomposition of Japan's trade balance2017

    • Author(s)
      Yuri Sasaki
    • Organizer
      Asia pacific economic association
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Factor decomposition of Japan's trade balance2017

    • Author(s)
      Yuri Sasaki
    • Organizer
      RIETI-IWEP-CESSA Joint-Workshop, Issues over Currency and Exchange rate: empirical Studies on China and Japan
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Factor Decomposition of Japan's current account balance2016

    • Author(s)
      吉田裕司
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学(愛知)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-18
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Automobile Exports: Export Price and Retail Price2016

    • Author(s)
      Yuri Sasaki
    • Organizer
      Annual meeting of Korea Finance and Monetary Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Haevichi Hotel (Jeju, Korea)
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Factor Decomposition of Japan’s Current Account Balance2016

    • Author(s)
      吉田裕司
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学(愛知県名古屋市)
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Factor decomposition of Japan's Current Account Balance2015

    • Author(s)
      佐々木百合・吉田裕司
    • Organizer
      RIETI 研究プロジェクト「為替と国際通貨」研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      経済産業研究所(東京)
    • Year and Date
      2015-11-04
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Automobile Exports: Export Price and Retail Price2015

    • Author(s)
      吉田裕司
    • Organizer
      the 9th International Workshop of the Methods in International Finance Network "Globalization, Markets and Government
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学(大阪)
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-29
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Automobile Exports: Export Price and Retail Price2015

    • Author(s)
      吉田裕司
    • Organizer
      RIETI 研究プロジェクト「為替と国際通貨」研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      経済産業研究所(東京)
    • Year and Date
      2015-06-08
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Factor Decomposition of Japan's current account balance2015

    • Author(s)
      佐々木百合・吉田裕司
    • Organizer
      「海外直接投資が経常収支に与える影響のワークショップ」
    • Place of Presentation
      明治学院大学(東京)
    • Year and Date
      2015-04-21
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report

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Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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