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Empirical analyses on dynamic predictor selection in the Japanese Stock Market

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15K03559
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Money/ Finance
Research InstitutionWaseda University

Principal Investigator

Yamamoto Ryuichi  早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 教授 (50721958)

Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000)
Keywords戦略の切り替え / バブル暴落発生原因 / 投資戦略 / バブル・暴落発生原因
Outline of Final Research Achievements

There are mainly two research achievements on this project. First, we utilized a monthly panel dataset on the transaction history of 11 types of investors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and significantly identified foreign investors as trend-followers and individual investors, security companies, and investment trusts as fundamentalists. We also found that life or postal life insurance entities, trust banks, and industrial corporations interchangeably switch fundamental and technical rules over time. Therefore, the evidence provides significant support to severalagent-based models that theoretically explain empirical phenomena on price dynamics in real financial markets.
The second project utilized the transaction data of the individual stocks listed on the Nikkei 225. We demonstrated that switching strategies among several technical rules produce better performances than the buy and hold and non-switching strategies over our sample periods.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (6 results)

All 2017 2016 2015 Other

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (2 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Invited: 1 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Dynamic predictor selection and order splitting in a limit order market2017

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi Yamamoto
    • Journal Title

      Macroeconomic Dynamics

      Volume: Forthcoming Issue: 5 Pages: 1757-1792

    • DOI

      10.1017/s136510051700044x

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Trading profitability from learning and adaptation on the Tokyo Stock Exchange2016

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi Yamamoto
    • Journal Title

      Quantitative Finance

      Volume: 16 Issue: 6 Pages: 969-996

    • DOI

      10.1080/14697688.2015.1091941

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report 2015 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Trading profitability from learning and adaptation on the Tokyo Stock Exchange2015

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichi Yamamoto
    • Organizer
      International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA)’s 28th Annual Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      京王プラザホテル東京
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-02
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Trading profitability from learning and adaptation on the Tokyo Stock Exchange2015

    • Author(s)
      山本竜市
    • Organizer
      第23回日本ファイナンス学会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学
    • Year and Date
      2015-06-06
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] Home page for Ryuichi Yamamoto

    • URL

      http://www.f.waseda.jp/ryuichi/

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report 2015 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] Home page for Ryuichi Yamamoto

    • URL

      http://www.f.waseda.jp/ryuichi

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2019-03-29  

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