Supply Chain Management for Innovative Products based on the One-Shot Decision Theory

• Project/Area Number: 15K03599
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Management
• Research Institution: Yokohama National University
• Principal Investigator: GUO PEIJUN 横浜国立大学, 大学院国際社会科学研究院, 教授 (60325313)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
• Keywords: ワン・ショット意思決定理論 / 新聞売り子問題 / アノマリー / オークション / バイレベル最適化問題 / Bilevel programming / min-max optimization / nonconvex / nonsmooth / newsvendor problem / One-shot decision theory / Behavioral Models / Auctions/bidding / Throwing away / Overbidding / Production planning / Ｂi-level programming / Capacity Allocation Game / 最適停止問題 / M&A / 区間回帰モデル / 多段階消費と投資問題 / 多段階ワン・ショット意思決定アプローチ / 新聞売り子モデル / 微分不可能非凸2レベル最適化問題

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We build production planning models for multiple innovative products with short life cycles based on the one-shot decision theory. The optimal production quantities of multiple innovative products are obtained based on some specific scenarios which are the most appropriate for the manufacturer. We utilize the one-shot decision theory to resolve the abnormalities observed in a simple capacity allocation game with two retailers and one supplier where the total demand of retailers exceeds the supplier’s inventory and the limited capacity is allocated to each retailer proportional to his/her order quantity. We solve some special bilevel programming problems where the lower level programs are max-min optimization problems and the upper level programs have max-max or max-min objective functions. We build an auction model with the one-shot decision theory. We obtain the optimal bidding price and explain two common phenomena in auction markets: throwing away and overbidding.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Approaches to four types of bilevel programming problems with nonconvex nonsmooth lower level programs and their applications to newsvendor problems (2017)
  • Author(s): X. Zhu and P. Guo
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Methods of Operations Research Volume: 86 Issue: 2 Pages: 255-275
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00186-017-0592-2
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Behavioral models for first-price sealed-bid auctions with the one-shot decision theory (2017)
  • Author(s): C. Wang and P. Guo
  • Journal Title: European Journal of Operational Research Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 3 Pages: 994-1000
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.03.024
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Possibilistic individual multi-period consumption-investment models (2015)
  • Author(s): Yonggang Li, Peijun Guo
  • Journal Title: Fuzzy Sets and Systems Volume: 274 Pages: 47-61
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.fss.2015.01.005
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] The normalized interval regression model with outlier detection and its real-world application to house pricing problems (2015)
  • Author(s): Chao Wang, Jing Li and Peijun Guo
  • Journal Title: Fuzzy Sets and Systems Volume: 274 Pages: 109-123
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.fss.2014.06.009
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Terms and Agency Problems in Mergers and Acquisitions (2015)
  • Author(s): Yuanbing Wang and Peijun Guo
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Information and Decision Sciences Volume: 7 Issue: 4 Pages: 287-311
  • DOI: 10.1504/ijids.2015.074130
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] A Behavioral Game Model for Solving the Abnormality in the Capacity Allocation Game (2017)
  • Author(s): P. Guo and C. Wang
  • Organizer: The Eighth POMS-HK International Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Hongkong
  • Year and Date: 2017-01-07
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] The One-Shot Decision Theory Based Production Planning Models (2016)
  • Author(s): X. Zhu and P. Guo
  • Organizer: IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
  • Place of Presentation: Bali, Indonesia
  • Year and Date: 2016-12-04
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Focus Theory of Choice and Its Application for Resolving St. Petersburg, Allais, Ellsberg and Other Paradoxes (2016)
  • Author(s): P. Guo
  • Organizer: The Society for Judgment and Decision Making
  • Place of Presentation: Boston
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-18
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Production planning problems under uncertainty with the one-shot decision theory (2016)
  • Author(s): X. Zhu and P. Guo
  • Organizer: The POMS 27th Annual Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Orlando
  • Year and Date: 2016-05-06
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Solving the One-Shot Decision Theory Based Newsvendor Models (2015)
  • Author(s): Xide Zhu and Peijun Guo
  • Organizer: IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
  • Place of Presentation: Singapore
  • Year and Date: 2015-12-06
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Funded Workshop] IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (2015)
  • Place of Presentation: Singapore
  • Year and Date: 2015-12-06