| Project/Area Number |
15K05286
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
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| Research Institution | Aichi University of Education |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
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| Keywords | 成層圏突然昇温 / 成層圏極渦強化 / 北半球環状モード / 対流圏・成層圏結合 / 季節内・季節予報 / 季節内予報 / 多数モデル比較 / 季節予報 / 予測可能性 / 惑星波強制 / 再解析データ比較 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study investigates characteristics of intraseasonal and seasonal forecasts for the Northern extratropical stratosphere and troposphere during winter using various forecast data sets. In particular, we verify forecasts for major stratospheric sudden warmings using one month forecast data of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). It reveals average predictability picture, as well as differences in forecast errors between warming types (larger errors for vortex split type). We also find significant skill of JMA seasonal winter forecasts only for the stratosphere. These forecasts for the stratospheric polar vortex are strongly related to those for planetary wave activity in the lower stratosphere and troposphere.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
数値天気予報モデルの成層圏表現が改善されるにつれて、成層圏極渦の予報に関心が寄せられてきた。成層圏突然昇温等の予報の様子は十分には知られていなかったが、本研究は様々な予報データからその基本的特性を明らかにした。また、成層圏の予報の良し悪しは対流圏起源の惑星波活動のそれと強く関連しており、成層圏に対する対流圏影響の重要性を再確認する。今後さらに、成層圏予報とその後の対流圏予報の関連を調査・理解することで、季節予報の改善に資することが期待できる。
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