Reconstruction, detection and attribution of the past glacier mass changes over the last several centuries

• Project/Area Number: 15K06228
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Hirabayashi Yukiko 東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 准教授 (60377588)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,810,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,110,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
• Keywords: 地球温暖化 / 氷河 / 最適指紋法 / 気候モデル / 不確実性

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We collect observed and constructed mass balance changes of glaciers at global scale and apply an optimal fingerprinting technique to observed and reconstructed mass losses as well as multi-model general circulation model (GCM) simulations of mountain glacier mass to detect and attribute past glacier mass changes. The results indicate that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the decreased area-weighted average masses of analyzed glaciers at global scale. The effect was larger than the mass increase caused by natural forcing, although the contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to decreases in mass varied at the local scale. We also showed that the detection of anthropogenic or natural influences could not be fully attributed when natural internal climate variability was taken into account.

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] アラスカフェアバンクス大学/コロラド大学(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ブレーメン大学(ドイツ)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ユトレヒト大学(オランダ)
• [Int'l Joint Research] スイス工科大学(スイス)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ブリティッシュコロンビア大学(カナダ)
• [Int'l Joint Research]
• [Int'l Joint Research] アラスカフェアバンクス大学/コロラド大学(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ブレーメン大学(ドイツ)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ユトレヒト大学(オランダ)
• [Int'l Joint Research] スイス工科大学(スイス)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ブリティッシュコロンビア大学(カナダ)
• [Int'l Joint Research]
• [Journal Article] アジア高山域における気象外力に起因する氷河融解量予測の不確実性 (2018)
  • Author(s): 渡辺 恵, 柳川 亜季, 平林 由希子, 渡部 哲史, 坂井 亜規子, 鼎 信次郎
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集B1(水工学） Volume: 74
  • NAID: 130007628199
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 衛星観測を用いた中央ヨーロッパにおける氷河のデブリ被覆分布推定とデブリの影響評価 (2018)
  • Author(s): 佐々木 織江, Yong Zhang, 平林 由希子, 鼎 信次郎
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集B1(水工学） Volume: 74
  • NAID: 130007628272
• [Journal Article] Glacier mass balance and its potential impacts in the Altai Mountains over the period 1990-2011 (2017)
  • Author(s): Zhang Yong、Enomoto Hiroyuki、Ohata Tetsuo、Kitabata Hideyuki、Kadota Tsutomu、Hirabayashi Yukiko
  • Journal Title: Journal of Hydrology Volume: 553 Pages: 662-677
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.08.026
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Contributions of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing to mass loss of Northern Hemisphere mountain glaciers and quantifying their uncertainties (2016)
  • Author(s): Hirabayashi, Y., K. Nakano, Y. Zhang, S. Watanabe, M. Tanoue and S. Kanae
  • Journal Title: Scientific Reports Volume: 6 Issue: 1 Pages: 29723-29723
  • DOI: 10.1038/srep29723
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Presentation] Uncertainty of glacier runoff projection from precipitation data for High Nountain Asia (2016)
  • Author(s): Watanbe, M., Y. Hirabayashi, S. Yoshikawa, S. Kanae
  • Organizer: AGU Fall Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ（USA)
  • Year and Date: 2016-12-12
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Global-scale analysis of satellite-derived debris distribution on glaciers (2016)
  • Author(s): Sasaki, O., O. Noguchi, Y. Zhang, Y. Hirabayashi, S. Kanae
  • Organizer: AGU Fall Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ（USA)
  • Year and Date: 2016-12-12
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] GCMに起因する氷河モデルを用いた氷河面積予測差 (2016)
  • Author(s): 渡辺恵, 平林由希子, 渡部哲史, 吉川沙耶花, 鼎信次郎
  • Organizer: 水文・水資源学会2016年度総会・研究発表会
  • Place of Presentation: コラッセふくしま（福島県福島市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-09-15
• [Presentation] Global-scale analysis of satellite-derived debris distribution on glacier (2015)
  • Author(s): Sasaki O., O. Noguchi, Y. Zhang, Y. Hirabayashi and S. Kanae
  • Organizer: AGU Fall meeting
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ（USA)
  • Year and Date: 2015-12-14
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass balance models and projections (2015)
  • Author(s): Hock, R., B. Marzeion, A. Bliss, R. Giesen, Y. Hirabayashi, M. Huss, V. Radic and A. Slangen
  • Organizer: AGU Fall meeting
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ(USA)
  • Year and Date: 2015-12-14
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 全球氷河モデルによる小氷期前後の氷河の前進と後退の再現性評価 (2015)
  • Author(s): 前田英俊, 平林由希子
  • Organizer: 水文・水資源学会2015年度総会・研究会
  • Place of Presentation: 首都大学東京（東京都八王子市）
  • Year and Date: 2015-09-09
• [Presentation] Impact of terrestrial glacier meltwater on water availability (2015)
  • Author(s): Tanoue, M., S. Watanabe, T. Tsunekawa, N. Hanasaki, and Y. Hirabayashi
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, 12th annual meeting, together with the 7th Asia Pacific Association of Hydrology and Water Resources Conference
  • Place of Presentation: シンガポール(シンガポール）
  • Year and Date: 2015-08-02
  • Int'l Joint Research