Scenarios for prevention of noncommunicable diseases focusing on social determinants of health

• Project/Area Number: 15K08761
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Epidemiology and preventive medicine
• Research Institution: National Institutes of Biomedical Innovation, Health and Nutrition
• Principal Investigator: NISHI Nobuo 国立研究開発法人医薬基盤・健康・栄養研究所, 国立健康・栄養研究所 国際栄養情報センター, センター長 (80243228)
• Research Collaborator: IKEDA Nayu ; SUGIYAMA Takehiro ; KUROTANI Kayo ; MIYACHI Motohiko
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
• Keywords: 構造的要因 / システム・ダイナミックス / 健康寿命 / シミュレーション / 医療費 / 健康の社会的決定要因 / 非感染性疾患 / 因果ループ図 / シミュレーションモデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Structural factors contributing to the Japanese healthy diet were examined using a causal loop diagram, which is a qualitative model of system dynamics. It was indicated that several factors such as health literacy of the Japanese and high price of food in Japan affect each other and hence prevent the proportion of the overweight and obese Japanese from increasing.
The association between healthy life expectancy and "care period" (a difference between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy) was also examined using simulation model based on a stock-flow model, which is a quantitative model of system dynamics. It was indicated that reducing the rates of transition from the independent state to the dependent state rather than decreasing the death rates is effective to shorten the care period.

Research Products

• [Presentation] A simulation study to shorten a long-term care period and to reduce national medical care expenditure in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Nobuo Nishi, Nayu Ikeda, Takehiro Sugiyama, Kayo Kurotani, Motohiko Miyachi
  • Organizer: 第36回国際システム・ダイナミックス学会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Causal loop diagram of structural contributors to the Japanese healthy diet (2017)
  • Author(s): Nobuo Nishi
  • Organizer: 10th Asia Pacific Conference on Clinical Nutrition
  • Int'l Joint Research