| Project/Area Number |
15K08813
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Hygiene and public health
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| Research Institution | Nara Medical University |
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Principal Investigator |
Akahane Manabu (2018) 奈良県立医科大学, 医学部, 准教授 (00418873)
赤羽 学 奈良県立医科大学, 医学部, 准教授 (40326327)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
田中 康仁 奈良県立医科大学, 医学部, 教授 (30316070)
城戸 顕 奈良県立医科大学, 医学部, 病院教授 (70382306)
石田 由佳子 奈良県立医科大学, 医学部附属病院, 研究員 (70759802)
赤羽 たけみ 奈良県立医科大学, 医学部, 講師 (70423910)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
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| Keywords | 看護師・理学療法士需要 / 高齢化 / 介護施設 / リハビリテーションの需要 / 理学療法士 / 作業療法士 / 要介護者数 / 需要推計 / 看護師 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We estimated the number of nurse and physical therapist for nursing care in Nara prefecture from the estimated number of elderly people and patients in hospital, and the estimated population by region in Nara prefecture of 2011. In the year 2046, it was estimated that the hospitalization and facility entry demand would increase by approximately 500 people, consequently at least 7 additional facilities and 70 nurses would be needed. If elderly people receiving medical treatment at hospitalization and at home before hospitalization continue medical care at the facility entry site, it would be necessary to add up to 53 facilities and 630 nurses. Likewise, it was speculated that the demand of physical therapists in hospitals would increase by 100 people in the future. It is necessary to add about 80 facilities and increase the number of 160 physiotherapists. Together with the necessary number of hospitals, it was estimated that there would be demand for up to 260 physiotherapists.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
我が国は超高齢社会となり今後も高齢者数が増加すると考えら、生産年齢人口の減少を加味しても、高齢者増加による入院需要の増加は避けられない。入院できない高齢者が施設や在宅での医療を受けることになり、介護サービスを含めた在宅ケアの需要を押し上げると考えられる。奈良県をモデルとした本研究では、看護師と理学療法士の不足が予測されたが、同様の傾向が全国的にみられると推測される。全国的な介護施設の増設や在宅医療の需要増加に伴う看護師やリハビリに従事する理学療法士の需要増加に、今後どのように対応するかは喫緊の課題であり、本研究の成果はこれらを考える上で重要な資料となる。
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