| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
A mathematical model of the natural history of intracranial aneurysms was constructed, in which the hypothetical individuals with or without unruptured aneurysm transit between discrete health states. The annual rupture rate of small aneurysms was assumed to be 0.5%. The analyses were continued until cumulative death rate from subarachnoid hemorrhage or other causes reached 1.0.
Age-specific ratios of death of subarachnoid hemorrhage in the individuals harboring unruptured aneurysm, if dying at 60 years old, were 25% in males and 43% in females. These ratios decreased rapidly with higher age. The majority (more than 90%) of patients with small aneurysms were expected to die of diseases other than subarachnoid hemorrhage. In the baseline analysis, lifetime lost to small aneurysms could be estimated as 3.8% for males and 4.2% for females, but somewhat larger impact could be identified in the young and/or female individuals than in the elderly and/or male individuals.
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