Estimation for variability of extreme precipitation using ensemble forecast data
| Project/Area Number |
15K16316
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
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| Research Institution | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology |
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Principal Investigator |
FUJITA Mikiko 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, シームレス環境予測研究分野, 技術研究員 (50426293)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2017-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
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| Keywords | 極端降水 / 可降水量 / 気候変動 / アンサンブル予報 / 極端事象 / 領域気候 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Uncertainty of extreme precipitation and water vapor was investigated using ensemble forecast data by dynamical downscaling and observational data. We investigated the variability of extreme precipitation using very extreme precipitation event occurred in 2015 summer around Japan. The extreme precipitation occurred under the limited situation linking two typhoons, however, our results show the possibility to speculate the areas, where is close to the actual damaged area, to watch out for similar disasters.
As a source of precipitation, we also investigated the relationship between precipitable water vapor and surface temperature using long-term observational data. We found that the precipitable water vapor increases with higher rate than that estimated in previous study. The results show the importance to observe vertical profiles of temperature and humidity correctly that change drastically coupled with the surface temperature increases.
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Report
(3 results)
Research Products
(6 results)
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[Presentation] Ship-based in-situ observation of precipitating systems and accompanying atmosphere-ocean variations at the western end of the maritime continent: A contribution to Pre-YMC 2015 field campaign2016
Author(s)
Masaki Katsumata, Biao Geng, Kyoko Taniguchi, Qoosaku Moteki, Ichiro Matsui, Yuki Kaneko, Tamaki Suematsu, Prabu Kresna Putra, Dedy Swandry Banurea, Makito Yokota, Miki Hattori, Mikiko Fujita, Fadli Syamsudin and Kunio Yoneyama
Organizer
American Meteorological Society’s 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Place of Presentation
San Juan, Puerto Rico
Year and Date
2016-04-19
Related Report
Int'l Joint Research
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