• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

Expectation Formation and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15K17024
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Economic theory
Research InstitutionYokohama City University

Principal Investigator

Nakazono Yoshiyuki  横浜市立大学, 国際総合科学部(八景キャンパス), 准教授 (10707483)

Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Keywordsインフレ期待 / 金融政策 / 中央銀行 / 期待形成 / インフレ予想
Outline of Final Research Achievements

First, we find that information rigidities are determinants of cross-sectional disagreement among not only households but also experts and there is dissonance regarding the long-run forecasts of inflation rates between the central bank and economic entities, despite the adoption of a 2% inflation target in January 2013. Second, we show that information advantage in Federal Reserve disappears after the publication of implicit inflation targets. Third, we present that inflation expectation formation is less relevant for optimal monetary policy and expectation formation matters for Taylor rule or price-level targeting rule. In other words, policy effectiveness significantly changes in Japan by expectation formation.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

研究成果の社会的意義は、近年、経済主体が形成する期待に対する関心が高まっている中で、それらの政策効果に関して定性的・定量的な評価を与えた点にある。本研究では家計や企業、専門家が形成する期待の特徴に関する理論と現実の整合性を実証したうえで、期待形成の特徴とマクロ経済動学の関係を明らかにしている。そのため、本研究は金融政策に限界が見える中において、今後の金融政策に関する議論に資する研究であると言える。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (8 results)

All 2018 2017 2016 2015

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Role of expectations in a liquidity trap2018

    • Author(s)
      Hasui Kohei、Nakazono Yoshiyuki、Teranishi Yuki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: 52 Pages: 201-215

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jjie.2018.12.004

    • NAID

      210000180915

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Inflation expectations and monetary policy under disagreements2016

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Journal Title

      Bank of Japan Working Paper Series

      Volume: No.16-E-1

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Micro-data Evidence from Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Kikuchi
    • Organizer
      Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Micro-data Evidence from Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Kikuchi
    • Organizer
      Association of Behavioral Economics and Finance
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Federal Reserve Information When Long-term Inflation Expectations Are Well-anchored2017

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Organizer
      2017 IAAE Conference - International Association for Applied Econometrics
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Inflation expectations and monetary policy under disagreements2016

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Organizer
      22nd International Conference Computing in Economics and Finance
    • Place of Presentation
      Bordeaux, France
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Federal Reserve Information by Forecasting Horizon2016

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Organizer
      Third Annual CIGS End of Year Macroeconomics Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo, Japan
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Inflation expectations and monetary policy under disagreements2015

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Organizer
      東京大学金融教育研究センター・日本銀行調査統計局第6回共催コンファレンス
    • Place of Presentation
      日本銀行
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-27
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2020-03-30  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi