Expectation Formation and Macroeconomic Dynamics
| Project/Area Number |
15K17024
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Economic theory
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| Research Institution | Yokohama City University |
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Principal Investigator |
Nakazono Yoshiyuki 横浜市立大学, 国際総合科学部(八景キャンパス), 准教授 (10707483)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
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| Keywords | インフレ期待 / 金融政策 / 中央銀行 / 期待形成 / インフレ予想 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
First, we find that information rigidities are determinants of cross-sectional disagreement among not only households but also experts and there is dissonance regarding the long-run forecasts of inflation rates between the central bank and economic entities, despite the adoption of a 2% inflation target in January 2013. Second, we show that information advantage in Federal Reserve disappears after the publication of implicit inflation targets. Third, we present that inflation expectation formation is less relevant for optimal monetary policy and expectation formation matters for Taylor rule or price-level targeting rule. In other words, policy effectiveness significantly changes in Japan by expectation formation.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
研究成果の社会的意義は、近年、経済主体が形成する期待に対する関心が高まっている中で、それらの政策効果に関して定性的・定量的な評価を与えた点にある。本研究では家計や企業、専門家が形成する期待の特徴に関する理論と現実の整合性を実証したうえで、期待形成の特徴とマクロ経済動学の関係を明らかにしている。そのため、本研究は金融政策に限界が見える中において、今後の金融政策に関する議論に資する研究であると言える。
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(8 results)
