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The Ratchet Effect of Management Earnings Forecasts and its Impact on Earnings Management

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15K17168
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Accounting
Research InstitutionAoyama Gakuin University

Principal Investigator

YANAI Kazutoshi  青山学院大学, 経営学部, 准教授 (10350414)

Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2017-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
Budget Amount *help
¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥390,000 (Direct Cost: ¥300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥90,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Keywordsラチェット / 経営者予想利益 / 報告利益管理 / 役員賞与 / 経営者報酬 / ラチェット効果 / 利益ベンチマーク
Outline of Final Research Achievements

I first investigate whether the management earning forecast is a benchmark on the CEO's annual bonuses.I find a negative significant effect on CEO's annual bonuses when the firm misses the management earning forecast.Next I investigate whether the management earning forecast ratchets.As a result,I find that the management earning forecast ratchets.
Based on the ratchet effect of the management earning forecast,I hypothesize that firms make income-decreasing earnings management when positive earnings innovations are expected to transitory.I find that firms with transitory earnings make income-decreasing earnings management to offset transitory earnings surprises to avoid increasing the next period's management earnings forecasts. In addition,I find the level of the next period's management earnings forecasts of the firms with transitory earnings, making income-decreasing earnings management are easy to achieve.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2016 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (7 results)

All 2017 2016 2015

All Journal Article (3 results) (of which Acknowledgement Compliant: 3 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] 経営者予想利益のラチェット効果が利益減少型の報告利益管理に与える影響2017

    • Author(s)
      矢内一利
    • Journal Title

      Aoyama Institute for Global Business Working Paper Series

      Volume: 2017-1 Pages: 1-11

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 経営者報酬契約における経営者予想利益のラチェット効果の影響の検証2017

    • Author(s)
      矢内一利
    • Journal Title

      Aoyama Institute for Global Business Working Paper Series

      Volume: 2017-2 Pages: 1-24

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 利益ベンチマーク未達が役員賞与に与える影響の検証2016

    • Author(s)
      矢内一利
    • Journal Title

      早稲田商学

      Volume: 446

    • NAID

      120005856460

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] The Impacts of Organizational Dysfunction On Budgeting,Managers’ Forecast and Earnings Management2017

    • Author(s)
      Shimizu,N.,K.Yanai,K.Arai,and A.Tamura
    • Organizer
      9th Conference on Performance Measurement and Management Control
    • Place of Presentation
      Nice,France
    • Year and Date
      2017-09-13
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 経営者報酬と利益ベンチマークとの関係の検証2016

    • Author(s)
      矢内一利
    • Organizer
      日本管理会計学会2016年度年次全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      明治大学
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 経営目標(KPI)と予算の設定及び業績予想に関する産学共同研究2016

    • Author(s)
      清水信匡、矢内一利
    • Organizer
      日本管理会計学会2016年度年次全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      明治大学
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 経営者予想利益のラチェット効果の検証2015

    • Author(s)
      矢内一利
    • Organizer
      日本管理会計学会2015年度年次全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      近畿大学
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-29
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report

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Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2018-03-22  

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