| Project/Area Number |
15K20923
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Environmental policy and social systems
Energy engineering
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Research Collaborator |
KAJIKAWA Yuya 東京工業大学, 環境・社会理工学院, 准教授 (70401148)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2017-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
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| Keywords | エネルギー・モデル / エネルギー・シナリオ / 不確実性 / 技術変化 / イノベーション / 統合評価モデル / エネルギー経済モデル |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Energy scenarios constitute a basic tool to assess long-term climate policy and energy policy. They, however, suffer from biases and various problems. This study investigated into how the scenarios utilized for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) deal with sudden changes in technology (surprises). Scenarios underestimated penetration of solar photovoltaics (PV) by using overly high cost parameters for solar PV and deviating from the typical pattern of learning/experience curves. For technologies with rapid changes such as solar PV, analysts should update the input assumptions for energy models and scenarios frequently and also explore a larger range of technology parameters.
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