Extension of energy scenario analysis to deal with rapid technical change (surprises) and possible application for policy process

• Project/Area Number: 15K20923
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Environmental policy and social systems; Energy engineering
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Sugiyama Masahiro 東京大学, 政策ビジョン研究センター, 講師 (20503428)
• Research Collaborator: KAJIKAWA Yuya 東京工業大学, 環境・社会理工学院, 准教授 (70401148)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
• Budget Amount: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
• Keywords: エネルギー・モデル / エネルギー・シナリオ / 不確実性 / 技術変化 / イノベーション / 統合評価モデル / エネルギー経済モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Energy scenarios constitute a basic tool to assess long-term climate policy and energy policy. They, however, suffer from biases and various problems. This study investigated into how the scenarios utilized for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) deal with sudden changes in technology (surprises). Scenarios underestimated penetration of solar photovoltaics (PV) by using overly high cost parameters for solar PV and deviating from the typical pattern of learning/experience curves. For technologies with rapid changes such as solar PV, analysts should update the input assumptions for energy models and scenarios frequently and also explore a larger range of technology parameters.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Next steps in geoengineering scenario research: Limited deployment scenarios and beyond (2017)
  • Author(s): Masahiro Sugiyama, Yosuke Arino, Takanobu Kosugi, Atsushi Kurosawa, Shingo Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Climate Policy Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 6 Pages: 681-689
  • DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2017.1323721
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Research management: Five years on from Fukushima (2016)
  • Author(s): Masahiro Sugiyama, Ichiro Sakata, Hideaki Shiroyama, Hisashi Yoshikawa, Taketoshi Taniguchi
  • Journal Title: Nature Volume: 531 Issue: 7592 Pages: 29-31
  • DOI: 10.1038/531029a
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 気候変動緩和策としてのエネルギー技術イノベーション政策 (2016)
  • Author(s): 杉山 昌広
  • Journal Title: Review of Environmental Economics and Policy Studies Volume: 9 Issue: 1 Pages: 103-107
  • DOI: 10.14927/reeps.9.1_103
  • NAID: 130005156910
  • ISSN: 1882-3742, 2188-2495
  • Open Access
• [Presentation] Japan’s mid- and long-term mitigation pathways and associated challenges: A model intercomparison pilot project (2017)
  • Author(s): 杉山昌広, 藤森真一郎, 和田謙一, 遠藤聖也, 藤井康正, 小宮山涼一, 加藤悦史, 黒沢厚志, 松尾雄司, 大城賢, 佐野史典
  • Organizer: エネルギー・資源学会第33回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス
  • Place of Presentation: 砂防会館（東京・永田町）
• [Presentation] エネルギー・シナリオのバイアス：技術変化と政策選好 (2017)
  • Author(s): ③杉山昌広, 浦江望於, 佐々木友理
  • Organizer: エネルギー・資源学会第36回研究発表会
  • Place of Presentation: 砂防会館（東京・永田町）
• [Presentation] Absorptive capacity for energy policymaking: A case of energy-economic modeling (2016)
  • Author(s): Masahiro Sugiyama
  • Organizer: 34th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Hyatt Regency Tulsa, Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA
  • Int'l Joint Research