| Project/Area Number |
15KK0127
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| Research Category |
Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Nagoya City University |
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Principal Investigator |
Itakura Ken 名古屋市立大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (90405217)
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| Research Collaborator |
Hertel Thomas W. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, Distinguished Professor, and Executive Director
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016 – 2018
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥15,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,600,000)
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| Keywords | 貿易政策 / 経済連携協定 / CGE / 応用一般均衡分析 / GTAP / FTA / EPA / 多角的貿易交渉 / 気候変動 / CGEモデル / heterogeneous firms / TPP / RCEP / TPP11 / 計算可能な一般均衡 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
As economic interdependency has deepened with increasing number of FTAs and EPAs, there have been burgeoning literature estimating economic impact of FTAs. However, few studies have analyzed the FTAs' liberalization effects of trade in goods and services as well as investment by applying dynamic computable general equilibrium model. We developed a dynamic global CGE model and constructed multiple policy scenarios, and we estimated the economic impact of FTAs. With a gravity model of FDI inflow and bilateral investment treaty, we applied resulting estimates to our policy simulation. We quantitatively identified FTA's liberalization effect arising from reducing import tariffs and barriers in services trade, improving logistic of merchandise goods, and investment commitment in FTAs. Among the liberalization effects, investment commitment significantly contributes to welfare gains. These are the fruits of collaborative research at the Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
学術的な意義は、EPAの経済効果を数量的に分析する際、貿易自由化の効果と投資自由化の効果を同時に推計する方法を開発応用した点にある。両効果の捕捉には、多地域多部門を構成要素とし、生産-貿易-消費-投資を表現する応用経済モデル、対応する経済データが必要となる。また投資と資本の変化は動学的な分析枠組みを求める。これらの条件下で、EPAによる投資環境整備と海外直接投資を実証的な関係として分析モデルに導入した点にも学術的な意義がある。社会的な意義は、EPAによる影響を国別産業別の経済効果として明らかにすることであり、また経済厚生の変化を推計することで、EPAを巡る議論や政策形成に貢献することである。
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