Establishing time-series databases of party manifestos and estimating party positions(Fostering Joint International Research)

• Project/Area Number: 15KK0136
• Research Category: Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Politics
• Research Institution: Waseda University
• Principal Investigator: Hino Airo 早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 教授 (30457816)
• Project Period (FY): 2016 – 2019
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
• Budget Amount: ¥15,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,540,000)
• Keywords: 政党マニフェスト / 選挙公約 / 計量テキスト分析 / 教師なし学習 / Wordfish / 政策位置 / 比較マニフェストプロジェクト / 専門家調査 / 政党 / マニフェスト / コンピュータ・コーディング / トピックモデル / 機械学習 / 政治学

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The aim of this project is to collect party manifestos in Japan longitudinally and to estimate party positions based on their texts using relevant scaling methods. To this end, party manifestos in digital form and its texts are archived for future public use. Party positions estimated based on text data are largely similar to those available from existing data such as the Comparative Manifestos Project and expert surveys but also yield a slightly different picture that needs to be further studied.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の学術的意義は、政党の政策を分析する際に基礎データとなる政党マニフェストを収集・アーカイブ化し、テキスト化したことである。これにより、今後テキストデータとして様々な分析に利用可能となる。また、本研究には現実政治の理解を深めるという社会的意義もある。それは、政党の立ち位置を再現可能な形で提示することにより、政党や政党間の関係について印象論から離れて客観的に理解することの助けになるからである。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] ミラノ大学(イタリア) (2016)
  • Year and Date: 2016-10-01
• [Journal Article] Context Impacts on Confirmation Bias: Evidence From the 2017 Japanese Snap Election Compared with American and German Findings (2019)
  • Author(s): Knobloch-Westerwick Silvia、Liu Ling、Hino Airo、Westerwick Axel、Johnson Benjamin K
  • Journal Title: Human Communication Research Volume: Vol.45, No.4 Pages: 427-449
  • DOI: 10.1093/hcr/hqz005
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Representing the Twittersphere: Archiving a representative sample of Twitter data under resource constraints (2019)
  • Author(s): Hino Airo、Fahey Robert A.
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Information Management Volume: 48 Pages: 175-184
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2019.01.019
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Japan: Political Development and Data for 2018 (2019)
  • Author(s): HINO AIRO、OGAWA HIROKI
  • Journal Title: European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbook Volume: 58 Issue: 1 Pages: 162-169
  • DOI: 10.1111/2047-8852.12269
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] The Intensity of Government-Opposition Divide as Measured through Legislative Speeches and What We Can Learn from It: Analyses of Japanese Parliamentary Debates, 1953-2013 (2018)
  • Author(s): Curini Luigi、Hino Airo、Osaki Atsushi
  • Journal Title: Government and Opposition Volume: d.k. Issue: 2 Pages: 1-18
  • DOI: 10.1017/gov.2018.15
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Ranking and Rating: Neglected Biases in Factor Analysis of Postmaterialist Values (2018)
  • Author(s): Hino Airo、Imai Ryosuke
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Public Opinion Research Volume: なし Issue: 2 Pages: 1-14
  • DOI: 10.1093/ijpor/edy007
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Japan: Political development and data for 2017 (2018)
  • Author(s): HINO AIRO、OGAWA HIROKI
  • Journal Title: European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbook Volume: 57 Issue: 1 Pages: 162-175
  • DOI: 10.1111/2047-8852.12217
• [Journal Article] Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Hino, A.
  • Journal Title: European Journal of Political Research, Political Data Yearbook Volume: 56 Issue: 1 Pages: 159-169
  • DOI: 10.1111/2047-8852.12183
• [Journal Article] Japan (2016)
  • Author(s): Hino, A.
  • Journal Title: European Journal of Political Research, Political Data Yearbook Volume: 55 Issue: 1 Pages: 156-163
  • DOI: 10.1111/2047-8852.12134
• [Presentation] Party competition in voters’ mind: Simulating the role of policy issues - The case of the Japanese Upper House election in 2019 (2020)
  • Author(s): Camatarri, S., Gallina, M., and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: The 3rd Winter Meeting of Japanese Society of Quantitative Political Science
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Demand meets supply: How policy offers condition voting for challenger parties (2019)
  • Author(s): Hino, A. and Camatarri, S.
  • Organizer: American Political Science Association Annual Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Populist attitudes and party preferences in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Fahey, R. Jungkunz, S. and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: North-eastern Workshop on Japanese Politics
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] District magnitude and manifesto coordination: Analyses of Japanese local elections (2019)
  • Author(s): Hino, A. and Blais, A.
  • Organizer: Conference on Multifaceted Values in Multilevel Contexts
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Decline of Pillarisation in Europe, resilience in Japan? The case of value-based parties: Komeito and Christian democracy (2019)
  • Author(s): Endo, M, Foret, F, and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: Conference on Multifaceted Values in Multilevel Contexts
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A rise of authoritarian values in Japan and Europe? (2019)
  • Author(s): Gonthier, F. Jou, W., and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: Conference on Multifaceted Values in Multilevel Contexts
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 計量テキスト分析による政党システム分極化の測定－政党マニフェストのアーカイブ化とWordfishによる政党位置の推定（1996年～2017年） (2019)
  • Author(s): 日野 愛郎、千葉 涼、吉光寺 智紀
  • Organizer: 日本政治学会
• [Presentation] Populist dynamics: Interplay between parties’ rhetoric & voters’ attitudes in shaping electoral results (2019)
  • Author(s): Camatarri, S., and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: 3rd Waseda Brussels Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Populist voters & political trust in Europe & Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Hino, A., Fahey, R., Jungkunz, S.
  • Organizer: 3rd Waseda Brussels Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 政策の実施と環境意識変化： 国際社会調査プログラム（ISSP) を 通じたマルチレベ分析 (2019)
  • Author(s): 日野愛郎・田部井滉平
  • Organizer: 環境経済・経営研究所領域横断ワークショップ
• [Presentation] Citizens' Deliberation and Reasoning Quality: Evidence from Deliberative Experiments in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Hino, A
  • Organizer: Democratic Innovations & Legitimacy Research Group, KULeuven
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Values - An object of reconciliation or conflict in Japan and Europe? (2019)
  • Author(s): Foret, F., and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: EU-Japan Forum
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] District magnitude and manifesto coordination: Analyses of Japanese local elections (2019)
  • Author(s): Hino, A., and Blais, A.
  • Organizer: FNRS-JSPS Joint-Conference “Values in European and Japanese politics”
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] An Unnoticed Pillar? Religion and Party Politics in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Endo, M. and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: FNRS-JSPS Joint-Conference “Values in European and Japanese politics”, Universite Libre de Bruxelles
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A rise of authoritarian values in Japan? (2019)
  • Author(s): Jou, W. and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: FNRS-JSPS Joint-Conference “Values in European and Japanese politics”, Universite Libre de Bruxelles
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Putting the systemic turn into a systematic test: Evidence from deliberative and mini-publics experiments on the issue of foreign labour in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Hino, A., Endo, M., Yamazaki, A, and Chiba, R.
  • Organizer: Waseda-Essex Scientific PoliSci/IR Collaboration and Exchange
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 大規模“ミニ・パブリックス”実験の報告―「外国人労働者受け入れ政策」をテーマとした「日本の将来に関する静岡県民による意見交換会」の知見から (2018)
  • Author(s): 日野愛郎
  • Organizer: 第４回 日本ミニ・パブリックス研究フォーラム
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Lost in Translation?: Testing the Validity of Ideological Scales in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Hino, A., and Endo, M.
  • Organizer: Waseda-Irvine Conference on Political Economy
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 欧州議会選挙における投票行動 ―「国政選挙と欧州議会選挙の相対的重要度」の条件づけ効果 (2018)
  • Author(s): 今井亮佑・日野愛郎
  • Organizer: 日本政治学会
• [Presentation] Beyond Ideology: Measuring the Intensity of the Government-Opposition Divide from Legislative Speeches: An application to Japanese Parliamentary Debates, 1953-2013 (2018)
  • Author(s): Curini, L., Hino, A., and Osaki, A.
  • Organizer: Waseda-Essex Scientific PoliSci/IR Collaboration and Exchange
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Lost in Translation?: Testing the Validity of Ideological Scales in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Hino, A., and Endo, M.
  • Organizer: American Political Science Association
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Putting the systemic turn into a systematic test: Evidence from the interactive experiments of the public sphere and mini-publics in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Hino, A., Endo, M., Yamazaki, A, and Chiba, R.
  • Organizer: European Consortium for Political Research, General Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] District magnitude and manifesto coordination: Analyses of Japanese local elections (2018)
  • Author(s): Hino, A., and Blais, A.
  • Organizer: International Political Science Association, Brisbane
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Representing the Twittersphere: Archiving a Representative Sample of Twitter Data under Resource Constraints (2018)
  • Author(s): Hino, A., and Fahey, R.
  • Organizer: Waseda Workshop on Quantitative Text Analysis
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Scoring from the Angles: Electoral Bases of New Challenger Parties in the 2014 European Parliamentary Election (2018)
  • Author(s): Hino, A., and Camatarri, S.
  • Organizer: 日本選挙学会
• [Presentation] Sketching policies from scratch: Comparing policy estimates between ‘real’ party manifestos and ‘quasi’ manifestos by semi-structured interviews (2017)
  • Author(s): Hino, A, and Curini, L.
  • Organizer: European Political Science Association
  • Place of Presentation: Palazzo delle Stelline, Milano
  • Year and Date: 2017-06-22
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 熟慮の質に関する指標化の試み－Reasoning Quality Index (RQI)とArgument Repertoire(AR)の比較を通して (2017)
  • Author(s): 今井亮佑・千葉涼・日野愛郎
  • Organizer: 政治経済学会
  • Place of Presentation: 早稲田大学
  • Year and Date: 2017-03-05
• [Presentation] Beyond Ideology: Measuring the Intensity of the Government-Opposition Divide from Legislative Speeches: An application to Japanese Parliamentary Debates, 1953-2013 (2017)
  • Author(s): Hino, A.
  • Organizer: Institute of Asia and Pacific Studies
  • Place of Presentation: University of Nottingham
  • Year and Date: 2017-02-23
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Deliberating through perspectives: Evidence from mini-publics experiments in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Hino, A., Imai, R., and Chiba, R.
  • Organizer: General Conference, European Consortium for Political Research
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] ミニ・パブリックスにおける発話と態度変化に関する実証分析 (2017)
  • Author(s): 日野愛郎、千葉涼、今井亮佑
  • Organizer: 日本政治学会2017年度総会・研究大会
• [Presentation] The Spiral of Silence and the Crescendo of Voices: Opinion Expression after Fukushima Nuclear Crisis (2017)
  • Author(s): Hino, A.
  • Organizer: 5th Annual Toronto Political Behaviour Workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Electoral bases of challenger parties in Western Europe (2017)
  • Author(s): Hino, A. and Camatarri, S.
  • Organizer: West-European politics in 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Effects of district magnitude on manifesto coordination: Evidence from candidate manifestos compared across prefectural and municipality levels in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Hino, A. and Blais, A.
  • Organizer: Workshop on ‘Manifesto coordination in multi-level settings’
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Nationalism in Asia (2017)
  • Author(s): Jou, W. and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: EU-Japan Forum
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] To fight or not to fight for issue ownership: Analyses of New Politics Parties and Extreme Right Parties across 15 West European democracies (2016)
  • Author(s): Hino, A.
  • Organizer: EU-Japan Forum
  • Place of Presentation: Egmont Palace, Brussels
  • Year and Date: 2016-10-25
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Book] 現代ベルギー政治 (2018)
  • Author(s): 津田 由美子、松尾 秀哉、正躰 朝香、日野 愛郎
  • Total Pages: 282
  • Publisher: ミネルヴァ書房
  • ISBN: 9784623081219
• [Book] 内容分析の進め方 (2018)
  • Author(s): ダニエル・リフ、スティーヴン・レイシー、フレデリク・フィコ、日野 愛郎
  • Total Pages: 312
  • Publisher: 勁草書房
  • ISBN: 9784326603107
• [Book] 田中愛治（編著） 熟議の効用・熟慮の効果‐政治哲学を実証する (2018)
  • Author(s): 日野愛郎（分担執筆）
  • Total Pages: 228
  • Publisher: 勁草書房
  • ISBN: 9784326302666
• [Book] Mecanismos de participacion ciudadana: Una Experiencia Global (2017)
  • Author(s): Hino, A.
  • Total Pages: 430
  • Publisher: Tirant
  • ISBN: 9788491438205
• [Book] ‘Examining Response Order Effects through the Computer Randomization’, Kohno, M. and Nishizawa, Y. (eds.), Electoral Survey Methodology: Insight from Japan using computer assisted personal interviews (2016)
  • Author(s): Imai, R. and Hino, A.
  • Publisher: Routledge
• [Book] 「欧州議会の機能と構造‐立法・選挙・政党」福田耕治（編）『EU・欧州統合研究 改訂版－”Brexit”以後の欧州ガバナンス』 (2016)
  • Author(s): 日野愛郎
  • Publisher: 成文堂