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Deterrence by Denial: Avoiding Conflict in the Age of Interdependence and Nationalism

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15KT0135
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section特設分野
Research Field Conflict Studies
Research InstitutionWaseda University

Principal Investigator

Ueki Chikako  早稲田大学, 国際学術院(アジア太平洋研究科), 教授 (50460043)

Project Period (FY) 2015-07-10 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,810,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,110,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords抑止 / 安全保障 / 国際政治学 / 国際関係 / 抑止論 / ナショナリズム / 紛争研究 / 戦争予防 / 相互依存
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research examined situations surrounding and problems associated with conventional deterrence by denial. The study found difficulties of conventional deterrence of small scale conflicts stemming from asymmetry of interests at stake. The study suggested, in conflicts over territories of relatively low strategical value, there could be a phenomenon similar to a “stability-instability paradox” associated with a MAD (mutually assured destruction) situation. The study observed contradicting perceptions among the security policy community. Despite difficulties associated with deterrence, practitioners viewed deterrence as less costly and signals easy to communicate.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

離島をめぐる紛争が懸念されている。この紛争を防ぐには抑止することが重要である。本研究は通常兵力による拒否的抑止が抱える問題点などを離島をめぐる小規模紛争や、第3者が紛争に軍事介入する場合に焦点を当てて検討した。新たな状況に合わせて抑止の概念を整理した上で、安全保障実務者の認識を探った意義は大きい。実務者には抑止が容易で相手に対する意思の伝達も適正に行える、という認識が見られた。しかし、事例研究では、互いの意図が正しく伝達できているということは確認できなかった。中国では拒否的抑止の考え方は、一般的に知られていないという実態もあった。これらを踏まえて、実際の政策に反映させていくことが重要である。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (16 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (3 results) Journal Article (1 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (12 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 9 results,  Invited: 8 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Dartmouth College(米国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Dartmouth 大学(米国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Dartmouth University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Is Japanese Nationalism on the Rise?2017

    • Author(s)
      Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki and Jennifer Lind
    • Journal Title

      International Security (Submitted)

      Volume: 印刷中

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The End of Liberal Deterrence?: Japan's China Strategy2019

    • Author(s)
      Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
    • Organizer
      A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Toward a Shared Strategy
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Free and Open Indo-Pacific: A Japanese Perspective2018

    • Author(s)
      Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
    • Organizer
      Australia-US and a Free and Open Indo-Pacific
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] U.S. Strategy for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific2018

    • Author(s)
      Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
    • Organizer
      Australia-U.S. Indo-Pacific Conference
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] U.S. Strategy for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific2018

    • Author(s)
      Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
    • Organizer
      Australia-US Indo-Pacific Conference
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Free and Open Indo-Pacific: A Japanese Perspective2018

    • Author(s)
      Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
    • Organizer
      Australia-United States and a Free and Open Indo-Pacific
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] トランプ政権100日と東アジアの対応2017

    • Author(s)
      植木千可子
    • Organizer
      シンポジウム:「トランプ政権は世界に構造的な変化をもたらすか」
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 日中関係:共通の未来を描けるか2017

    • Author(s)
      植木千可子
    • Organizer
      上海国際問題研究院:日中国交正常化45周年記念シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Japan’s Role in the World: Pacifist Isolationist or Proactive Internationalist?2017

    • Author(s)
      Chikako Ueki
    • Organizer
      The Politics of Foreign Policy
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] What are we fighting for? What are we afraid of? Misreading intentions and goals2016

    • Author(s)
      Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
    • Organizer
      The East Asian Community Forum
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-27
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Is the U.S.-Japan Alliance moving towards a regional and global alliance?2016

    • Author(s)
      Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
    • Organizer
      Conference on Alliances in Today's World
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-15
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Sources and Implications of U.S.-China Competition for East Asia2016

    • Author(s)
      Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki
    • Organizer
      KAIS International Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      韓国・ソウル
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-13
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Is Japanese Nationalism on the Rise?2016

    • Author(s)
      Chikako Ueki, Jennifer Lind
    • Organizer
      International Studies Association (Annual Meeting)
    • Place of Presentation
      米国・アトランタ
    • Year and Date
      2016-03-18
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2015-07-14   Modified: 2020-03-30  

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