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A model for forecasting water temperature of a small bay at Sanriku coast

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16510004
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Environmental dynamic analysis
Research InstitutionTokyo University of Marine Science and Technology

Principal Investigator

NAGASHIMA Hideki  Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Faculty of Ocean Science, Professor, 海洋科学部, 教授 (10087570)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) YAMAZAKI Hidekatsu  Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Faculty of Ocean Science, Professor, 海洋科学部, 教授 (80260537)
NEMOTO Masao  Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Faculty of Ocean Science, Associate Professor, 海洋科学部, 助教授 (90221481)
乙部 弘隆  東京大学, 海洋研究所・国際沿岸海洋研究センター, 講師 (10169328)
Project Period (FY) 2004 – 2005
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2005)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥3,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000)
KeywordsOtsuchi Bay / Heat budget / Water temperature forecasting / Wind driven current / Water exchange / Turbulent dissipation / 水温変動 / 三陸内湾
Research Abstract

To develop a model for forecasting water temperature of a small bay, Otsuchi Bay, located at the Sanriku coast of Japan, we clarified physical process of the bay, such as heat balance, water circulation, turbulent activity and so on. We first investigated inter-annual variation of heat budget through the sea surface of the bay by using weather and sea condition data supplied by International Coastal Research Center, the University of Tokyo and neighborhood meteorological stations, the Japan meteorological agency. The results show a clear difference in heat budget between the 80' and 90'. This difference is attributed to differences in both downward shortwave radiation and wind speed in Tohoku area. Second, we have carried out a measurement of turbulent activity both at the bay mouth and inner bay. The energy dissipation rate is estimated at the order of 10^<-7> to 10^<-8> W/kg in general, but sometimes up to the order of 10^<-6> W/kg at the depth of 15 to 20m of the inner bay. Third, we simulated wind driven water circulation by using GETM (General Estuarine Transport Model). The results are compared quite well with the circulation pattern obtained by the observational results. The vertical circulation caused by westerly in winter season shows the out flow above the depth of 8-10m and inflow below it. We also tried to investigate a statistical model for forecasting water temperature of the bay. On the basis of the data from 1978 to 2003, statistical coefficients of AR (Auto Regressive model) and ARMA (Moving Average of Auto Regressive model) are estimated. By using these coefficients, we calculated water temperature variation in 2004. As a result, this model forecasts water temperature of the bay with the bias of 0.58℃ and standard deviation of 0.88℃.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2005 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2004 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (13 results)

All 2005 2004

All Journal Article (13 results)

  • [Journal Article] Quantitative evaluation of nonlinear diffusion for isotropic random flow2005

    • Author(s)
      Sato, K., H.Nagashima
    • Journal Title

      Physica A 345

      Pages: 17-34

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 大槌湾における海面熱収支の経年変動2005

    • Author(s)
      安保綾子, 長島秀樹, 根本雅生, 轡田邦夫, 乙部弘隆
    • Journal Title

      Lamer 43

      Pages: 43-50

    • NAID

      10031152845

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report 2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Field and numerical study of entrainment laws for surface mixed layer2005

    • Author(s)
      T.Nagai, H.Yamazaki, H.Nagashima, L.H.Kantha
    • Journal Title

      Deep-Sea Research II 52

      Pages: 1109-1132

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Quantitative evaluation of nonlinear diffusion for isotropic random flow.2005

    • Author(s)
      Sato, K., H.Nagashima
    • Journal Title

      Physica A 345

      Pages: 17-34

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Inter-annual variation of heat budget through the sea surface in Otsuchi Bay.2005

    • Author(s)
      Anbo A, H.Nagashima, M.Nemoto, K.Kutsuwada, H.Otobe
    • Journal Title

      La mer 43

      Pages: 43-50

    • NAID

      10031152845

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Field and numerical study of entrainment laws for surface mixed layer.2005

    • Author(s)
      T.Nagai, H.Yamazaki, H.Nagashima, L.H.Kantha
    • Journal Title

      Deep-Sea Res.II 52

      Pages: 1109-1132

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Quantitative evaluation of nonlinear diffusion for isotropic random flow2005

    • Author(s)
      Kenji Sato, Hideki Nagashima
    • Journal Title

      Physica A 345

      Pages: 17-34

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Field and numerical study of entrainment laws for surface mixed layer2005

    • Author(s)
      T.Nagai, Y.mazaki, H.Nagashima, L.H.Kantha
    • Journal Title

      Deep-Sea Research II 52

      Pages: 1109-1132

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Quantitative evaluation of nonlinear diffusion for isotropic random flow2005

    • Author(s)
      Sato, K., H, Nagashima
    • Journal Title

      PHYSICA A 345

      Pages: 17-34

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Field and numerical study of entrainment laws for surface mixed layer2005

    • Author(s)
      Nagai, T., H.Yamazaki, H.Nagashiina, L.Kantha
    • Journal Title

      Deep Sea Res.II (in press)

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] How islands fertilize the upper ocean2004

    • Author(s)
      Hasegawa, D., H.Yamazaki, R.G.Lueck, L.Seuront
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. Res. Lett. 31

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] How islands fertilize the upper ocean2004

    • Author(s)
      Hasegawa, D., H.Yamazaki, R.G Lueck, L.Seuront
    • Journal Title

      Geophys.Res.Let. 31

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2005 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] How islands fertilize the upper ocean2004

    • Author(s)
      Hasegawa, D., H.Yamazaki, R.G.Lueck, L.Seuront
    • Journal Title

      Geophys.Res.Lett 31

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2004-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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