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Estimation of Automobile Demand in the U. S. using random coefficient logit model

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16510103
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Social systems engineering/Safety system
Research InstitutionUniversity of Tsukuba

Principal Investigator

KANAZAWA Yuichiro  University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Systems and Information and Engineering, Professor (50233854)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) TUMBULL S. J.  University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, Associate Professor (90240621)
Project Period (FY) 2004 – 2007
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2007)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,970,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2007: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥1,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000)
KeywordsTotal cost of ownership / Automobile reliability / Non-ignorable non-response / Random-coefficient logit model / Generalized method of moment / Instrument variable / Bayesian estimation / Stochastic equicontinuity / 比例オッズモデル / 操作変数 / Total Cost of Ownership / Reliability of automobile / nonignorable nonresponse / Proportional odds model / Randam Coefficient model / discrete choice model
Research Abstract

Estimating the demand of differentiated goods and services is essential to understand important problems in industrial organization and marketing such as the evaluation of the value of a brand or of power to control the market by o particular brand. In a durable goods market, the only data available to researcher are often characteristics of the products and their market shares. To compensate this lack of information, researchers have used discrete choice model based on utility maximization behavior of consumers to link characteristics of the products to their marker shares.
In this research, we set out to develop a new model by considerably extending the available models, investigate its statistical properties, and apply the model to the U. S. automobile market to obtain a new body of insight into this very important market.
The research proceeded in five phases: First estimating the automobile total cost of ownership (hence force, TCO) in the U. S. market; Second investigating the asymptotic behavior of the random-coefficient logit model including consistency and asymptotic normality and asymptotic variance-covariance; Third extending the random-coefficient logit model by combining the demographically categorized purchasing pattern data and again investigating the asymptotic behavior of this extended random-coefficient logit model including consistency and asymptotic and asymptotic variance-covariance; Fourth their applications to the U. S. automobile market using the TCOs rather than the purchasing prices; Five as a precursor to the next phase of research, developing a full information likelihood Bayesian estimation methods.
The first three are sequentially completed respectively during 2004-2005, 2005-2006, 2006-2007 academic years, but the last two topics are concurrently dealt in 2007-2008 academic year. We firmly believe this research will contribute to the body of literature in applied industrial organization and marketing.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2007 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2006 Annual Research Report
  • 2005 Annual Research Report
  • 2004 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (23 results)

All 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

All Journal Article (15 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (5 results) Book (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] A Simulation Study on Bayesian Simultaneous Demand and Supply Model with Market-Level Data2008

    • Author(s)
      Yutaka YONETANI, Yoichiro KANAZAWA and Satoshi MYOJO
    • Journal Title

      Kyoto university research information repository (To appear)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] On the relationships among organisational family supportiveness,work-family conflict, and turnover intention : evidence on Japanese men2007

    • Author(s)
      Yutaka YONETANI, Shinichiro WATANABE and Yuichiro KANAZAWA
    • Journal Title

      Int. J. Human Resources Development and Management 7

      Pages: 319-334

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Handbook of Econometrics, Chapter 28 Nonparametric and semiparametric estimation method2007

    • Author(s)
      Yuichiro KANAZAWA
    • Journal Title

      Asakura-shoten

      Pages: 899-933

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] On Asymptotic Properties of the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand and Supply Systems When Demographically-Categorized Purchasing Pattern Data are Available2007

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi MYOJO and Yuichiro KANAZAWA
    • Journal Title

      Department of Social Systems and Management Discussion Paper Series 1185

      Pages: 1-74

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] On the Interactive Effect of Personality Traits and Achievement Motive on Customer Orientation2007

    • Author(s)
      Shogo IWANAGA, Yuichiro KANAZAWA and Shinichiro WATANABE
    • Journal Title

      Department of Social Systems and Management Discussion Paper Series 1179

      Pages: 1-50

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report 2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Evaluating Relative Effectiveness of Training Shool Programs to Probation on Recidivism of Japanese Juvenile Delinquents2007

    • Author(s)
      Yoshikazu YUMA, Yuichiro KANAZAWA and Masaya KUNIYOSHI
    • Journal Title

      Department of Social Systems and Management Discussion Paper Series 1178

      Pages: 1-35

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] On the relationships among organisational family supportiveness, work-family conflict, and turnover intention:evidence on Japanese men2007

    • Author(s)
      Yutaka YONETANI, Shinichiro WATANABE and Yuichiro KANAZAWA
    • Journal Title

      Int. J. Human Resources Development and Management 7

      Pages: 319-334

    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] On Asymptotic Properties of the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand and Supply Systems When Demographically-Categorized Purcahsing Pattern Data are Available2007

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Myojo and Yuichiro KANAZAWA
    • Journal Title

      Department of Social Systems and Management Discussion Paper Series 1185

      Pages: 1-74

    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] On Asymptotic Properties of the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand and Supply Systems When Demographically-Categorized Purchasing Pattern Data are Available2006

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi MYOJO and Yuichiro KANAZAWA
    • Journal Title

      Conference Proceeding-Tsukuba-Tohoku Joint Workshop on New Direvtions of Research in Marketing

      Pages: 75-94

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Effectiveness of Japanese Correctional Treatments for Juveniles2006

    • Author(s)
      Yoshikazu YUMA, Yuichiro KANAZAWA and Masaya KUNIYOSHI
    • Journal Title

      Behaviormetrika 33(2)

      Pages: 149-177

    • NAID

      110004863629

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Effectiveness of Japanese Correctional Treatments for Juveniles2006

    • Author(s)
      Yuma, Y, Kanazawa, Y., Kuniyoshi M.
    • Journal Title

      Behaviormetrika 33・2

      Pages: 149-177

    • NAID

      110004863629

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] On Asymptotic Properties of the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand and Supply Systems When Demographically-Categorized Pruchasing Pattern Data are Available2006

    • Author(s)
      Myojo, S, Kanazawa, Y.
    • Journal Title

      Conference Proceeding-Tsukuba-Tohoku Joint Workshop on New Derections of Research in Marketing December 15-16

      Pages: 75-94

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] On the relationships among organizational family supportiveness, work-family conflict, and turnover intention - Evidence on Japanese men2006

    • Author(s)
      Y.Yonetani, S.Watanabe, Y.Kanazawa
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Human Resources Development and Management 6・1(刊行予定)

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Estimating the maintenance and repair cost of automobiles from possibly biased reliability data of Consumer Reports2004

    • Author(s)
      Vitoon Puripunyavanich, Satoshi MYOJO, and Yuichiro KANAZAWA
    • Journal Title

      The Journal of Management Accounting, Japan 13(1)

      Pages: 3-23

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Estimating the maintenance and repair cost of automobiles from possibly biased reliability data of Consumer Reports2004

    • Author(s)
      V.Puripunyavanich, S.Myojo, Y.Kanazawa
    • Journal Title

      The Journal of Management Accounting, Japan 13巻1号(刊行予定)

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A Bayesian Analysis of Simultaneous Demand and Supply with Market-Level data-U.S. Auto Market2007

    • Author(s)
      Yuichiro KANAZAWA
    • Organizer
      The 2007 INFORMS Marketing Science Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Lee Kong Chian School of Management, Singapore Management University Singapore
    • Year and Date
      2007-06-28
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] A Bayesian Analysis of Simultaneous Demand and Supply with Market-Level data2007

    • Author(s)
      Yuichiro KANAZAWA
    • Organizer
      The 2007 INFORMS Marketing Science Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Lee Kong Chian School of Management, Singapore Management University
    • Year and Date
      2007-06-28
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] An Attempt at Predicting the Why and the How of Customer-Oriented Behavior2007

    • Author(s)
      Yuichiro KANAZAWA and Shinichiro WATANABE
    • Organizer
      The Association for Psychological Science 19th Annual Convention
    • Place of Presentation
      Hilton, Washington D. C. U. S. A.
    • Year and Date
      2007-05-25
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] On the relationships among organisational family supportiveness, work-family conflict, and turnover intention : evidence on Japanese men2005

    • Author(s)
      Yuichiro KANAZAWA
    • Organizer
      The Association for Psychological Science 17th Annual Convention
    • Place of Presentation
      Westin Century Plaza, Los Angeles, California, U. S. A.
    • Year and Date
      2005-05-28
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Does TCO account for consumer preference for reliability and country of origin in U.S. automatic market?2005

    • Author(s)
      Yuichiro KANAZAWA
    • Organizer
      Annual Meetings of the Allied Social Science Associations
    • Place of Presentation
      Hyatt Regency, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U. S. A.
    • Year and Date
      2005-01-07
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] 計量経済学ハンドブック第28章ノンパラメトリック法, セミパラメトリック法2007

    • Author(s)
      金津雄一郎
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2007 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] 計量経済学ハンドブック第28章ノンパラメトリック法、セミパラメトリック法2007

    • Author(s)
      金澤 雄一郎
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 計量経済学ハンドブック2006

    • Author(s)
      金澤 雄一郎 他多数
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店(刊行予定)
    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2004-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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