An Empirical Study on Family Formation and Dissolution in the US
| Project/Area Number |
16530169
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Yokohama National University |
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Principal Investigator |
OMORI Yoshiaki Yokohama National University, Faculty of Economics, Professor (10272890)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2004 – 2007
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2007)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,280,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2007: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
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| Keywords | economics of the family / sequential choice model / dynamic sample selection / marriage / cohabitation / single |
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| Research Abstract |
We estimate a random effect sequential choice model in which (a) women decide on an annual basis whether to be single, cohabit, or marry until they dissolve their first cohabiting union or marriage; (b) the effect of each observed and unobserved factor on each type of transition varies; (c) the unobserved factors are correlated across alternatives and over time. We estimate the effects of economic benefits of marriage conferred by law on these decisions. We use 1979-2000 data on women from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, which allows us to associate each person-year observation with a transition type, and to control for a wide array of family background, personal, and environmental characteristics. By combining information on state tax laws, divorce laws, and welfare benefits with information on the state of residence and calendar year for the person-year observation, we compute the covariates measuring economic benefits of marriage. Using the estimated parameters, we p
… More
redict the probability that a representative woman of each race/ethnicity makes each annual transition and the probability that she forms a long-term first marriage ("marry by age 25 and remain married for at least nine years") and a long-term first union ("form any union, marriage or cohabitation, by age 25 and maintain that partnership for at least nine years") and the effects on these probabilities of various hypothetical interventions. We find that income tax policy raising the relative cost of marriage has small, imprecisely estimated effects on women's decisions, that increased AFDC/TANF and Medicaid benefits substantially lower the probability of long-term marriages and unions, that eliminating the "no fault" option from divorce law significantly raises the probability of long-term unions, and that factors not easily controlled by public policy (religion, childhood household composition, and the presence of children) are equally important determinants of long-term unions formation. Less
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(6 results)
