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Study on Formation and Change of Consumer Preference

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16530277
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Commerce
Research InstitutionUniversity of Tsukuba

Principal Investigator

MIZUNO Makoto  University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, Assistant Professor, 大学院システム情報工学研究科, 講師 (10361304)

Project Period (FY) 2004 – 2006
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2006)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥1,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000)
KeywordsPreference Change / Preference Formation / Interaction among Consumers / MCMC / Agent-based modeling / Perception and Language / Advertising Effectiveness / Propensity Score / 言語と嗜好 / 選好の進化 / 消費者間影響関係 / 予測能力 / 選好形成 / 選好の異質性 / 階層ベイズ / 選好の測定 / 言語の効果 / 個人間相互作用 / シミュレーション
Research Abstract

This research project has dealt with the formation and change. of consumer preference by both empirical and simulation-based theoretical approaches.
First, I focused the internal aspect of preference formation/change, driven by consumers' experiences, and also the external aspect of it, driven by social interaction among consumers. The former study examines the effects of perceptional and linguistic experiences on consumer preference formation via controlled experiments. The latter tackled how the heterogeneity in consumer preference would emerge through consumers' social interaction via agent-based modeling. The paper prepared for the latter study was selected by review and will appear in the post-proceedings of the World Congress of Social Simulation 06. Furthermore, I am working on the effects of information contagion on networks with specific characteristics on the formation of preference.
Second, I have developed several quantitative methods to measure the formation/change of consumer preference. One of them is the method to measure multi-stage preferential decision making including a non-compensatory rule and another is to measure the dynamical change of preference consistency at the individual level using a MCMC approach. I had presented these methods in academic meetings. Moreover, I am working on the methods to measure the effects of social interaction on preference formation.
Third, I have investigated the effects of marketing policies on the formation/change of preference. Specifically, I applied the Propensity Score method to test the short-term effect of TV advertising on consumer choice. The paper was documented as a discussion paper of our faculty and was submitted to an academic journal. On the other hand, I presented a paper in the journal of information processing, which argued the implications of the Long Tail business model emerging form recent IT movements, represented by Internet, in particular focusing on the change of consumer preference.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2006 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2005 Annual Research Report
  • 2004 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (14 results)

All 2007 2006 2005

All Journal Article (14 results)

  • [Journal Article] ネットワーク特性を考慮した情報伝播プロセスの分析 : 知名と忘却の効果2007

    • Author(s)
      水野誠, 飯塚貴之
    • Journal Title

      人工知能学会研究会資料(SIG-KBS) A604

      Pages: 91-97

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Emergence of the Leader-Follower Structure among Consumers : What type of consumers would be the most influential in the marketplace?2007

    • Author(s)
      Mizuno, Makoto, Shoichiro Inoue, Masami Noguchi
    • Journal Title

      The First World Congress on Social Simulation (WCSS06) : Post-Proceedings (In press)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Incorporating Network Properties into Analyses of Information Propagation Process : The Impact of Awareness and Forgetting.2007

    • Author(s)
      Mizuno, Makoto, Takayuki Iizuka
    • Journal Title

      SIG-KBS, The Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence A604

      Pages: 91-97

    • NAID

      40015408905

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Emergence of the Leader-Follower Structure among Consumers : What type of consumers would be the most influential in the marketplace?2007

    • Author(s)
      Mizuno, Makoto, Shoichiro Inoue, Masami Noguchi
    • Journal Title

      The First World Congress on Social Simulation (WCSS06) : Post- Proceedings (in press)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Emergence of the Leader-Follower Structure among Consumers : What type of consumers would be the most influential in the marketplace?2007

    • Author(s)
      Mizuno, Makoto, Shoichiro Inoue, Masami Noguchi
    • Journal Title

      The First World Congress on Social Simulation (WCSS06) : Post-Proceedings (未定)

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Assessing the Short-term Causal Effect of TV Advertising via the Propensity Score Method2006

    • Author(s)
      Mizuno, Makoto, Takahiro Hoshino
    • Journal Title

      Department of Social Systems and Management Discussion Paper Series No. 1162

      Pages: 1-24

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] ロングテールはマーケティングをどう変えるか?2006

    • Author(s)
      水野 誠
    • Journal Title

      情報処理 47巻11号

      Pages: 20-26

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report 2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Assessing the Short-term Causal Effect of TV Advertising via the Propensity Score Method.2006

    • Author(s)
      Mizuno, Makoto, Takahiro Hoshino
    • Journal Title

      Department of Social Systems and Management Discussion Paper Series No.1162

      Pages: 1-24

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] How Will the Long Tail Reshape Marketing?2006

    • Author(s)
      Mizuno, Makoto
    • Journal Title

      Information Processing 47(11)

      Pages: 20-26

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Emergence of the Leader-Follower Structure among Consumers : What type of consumers would be the most influential in the marketplace?2006

    • Author(s)
      Mizuno, Makoto, Shoichiro Inoue, Masami Noguchi
    • Journal Title

      The First World Congress on Social Simulation (WCSS06) : Proceedings 1巻

      Pages: 191-198

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Assessing the Short-term Causal Effect of TV Advertising via the Propensity Score Method2006

    • Author(s)
      Mizuno, Makoto, Takahiro Hoshino
    • Journal Title

      Department of Social Systems and Management Discussion Paper Series No.1162

      Pages: 1-24

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] "予言する"消費者たち〜需要を先取りする顧客の発見2006

    • Author(s)
      水野誠, 松尾博文, 柴山武
    • Journal Title

      マーケティング・サイエンス 14巻1号

      Pages: 106-107

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Assessing Short-term Effectiveness of TV Advertising via the Propensity Score2005

    • Author(s)
      Makoto Mizuno
    • Journal Title

      Marketing Science Conference

      Pages: 12-13

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] TV広告の購買に対する短期効果の検証〜傾向スコアの検証2005

    • Author(s)
      水野誠, 竹村滋芳, 星野崇弘
    • Journal Title

      日本行動計量学会第33回大会発表論文抄録集

      Pages: 140-141

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2004-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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