| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
TAKARA Kaoru Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Professor, 防災研究所, 教授 (80144327)
KOJIMA Toshiharu Gifu University, River Basin Research Center, Associate Professor, 流域圏科学研究センター, 助教授 (90346057)
ICHIKAWA Yutaka Kyoto University, Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Research Associate, 地球環境学堂, 助手 (30293963)
SAYAMA Takahiro Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research institute, Research Associate, 防災研究所, 助手 (70402930)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥1,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥2,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000)
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| Research Abstract |
In this researth, a comprehensive distributed rainfall-runoff model that includes the dam reservoir operation rule was developed, and applied to the Yodo River basin (7,281km^2) to assess the flood safety levels in the catchment The research aims to develop a new scheme of a flood control planning based on assessment of flood safety-level to cooperate with the interests of various stake-holders. The research was conducted from 2004 to 2005. and the followings are achieved in each year.
In 2004, a comprehensive distributed rainfall-runoff prediction system was developed and applied to the Yodo River basin (7,281km^2). The prediction system is based on physically based distributed rainfall model with the topographic representation of 250m DEM, which includes the operations of eight dam reservoir systems and the effect of water storage at the lake Biwa in the catchment. By the use of the system, it was realized to assess the flood safety-level at any locations in the catchment giving desig
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n rainfalls with various return retum periods of precipitation. Also, the historical change of flood safety-levels at the Hirakata, the outlet of the prediction system, with the construction of dam reservoirs after 1960 was analyzed using the prediction system.
In 2005, flood safety-levels at several representative points in the catchment were analyzed by simulating flood discharges for ten types of design rainfall with the magnitudes of 30,50,100,150 and 200 return periods. The analysis successfully showed the current status of flood safety-levels in the various points of catchments with some extents of prediction uncertainty. The system was extended not only to simulate short term flood discharge, but also to predict long term prediction of discharge, dam release and water stage at the dam reservoirs by including an evapotranspiration sub-system
The system is a basic analysis tool to predict river discharge considering dam reservoirs operation. This system will be utilized to create and maintain safety and secure society. The further studies with the prediction system include :
・Development of a new scheme of dam reservoir operation to cope with heavy floods that outstretch the planning magnitude,
・Assessment of the safety and reliability of current dam reservoirs and its operation under global warming,
・Development of a real-time flood prediction system for the entire river system to issue flood waning for medium and small scale catchments, and
・To propose a comprehensive river management strategy that satisfies safety in flood, water resources and environments. Less
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