Planning and Management of Mega Transport Projects with Risk and Uncertainty
| Project/Area Number |
16560469
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
交通工学・国土計画
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| Research Institution | TOYO University |
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Principal Investigator |
OHTA Katsutoshi TOYO University, School of Regional Development Studies, Professor, 国際地域学部, 教授 (10011149)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KASHIMA Shigeru Chuo University, Faulty of Science and Technology, Professor, 理工学部, 教授 (70108207)
HARATA Noboru University of Tokyo, School of Engineering, Professor, 大学院・新領域創成科学研究科, 教授 (40181010)
MUROMACHI Yasunori Tokyo Institute of Technology, Built Environment Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Associate Professor, 大学院・総合理工学研究科, 助教授 (40251350)
OHMORI Nobuaki University of Tokyo, School of Engineering, Lecturer, 大学院・工学系研究科, 講師 (80323442)
MARUYAMA Takuya University of Tokyo, School of Engineering, Research Assistant, 大学院・工学系研究科, 助手 (20361529)
橋本 成二 豊田都市交通研究所, 主任研究員
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| Project Period (FY) |
2004 – 2005
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2005)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥1,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥2,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000)
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| Keywords | mega-transport project / risk / uncertainty / user equilibrium model / scenario analysis / transport demand estimation / new transport system / 大規模プロジェクト / 需要予測 / 交通プロジェクト / 事後評価 |
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| Research Abstract |
Since mega transport projects take many years from planning to construction and operation, they face various uncertainty and risk during their implementation process.
This tends to bring about various social problems such as over estimation of demand, cost overrun, and the delay. The objectives of this research are (1)to study how to improve planning techniques to reduce such risks by improving travel demand estimation methods and (2)to discuss and propose planning process or planning methods which take into full account of possible uncertainty and risk.
As for the improvements of travel demand estimation method, we demonstrated theoretically and also empirically based upon the case study of Tokyo metropolitan area, the effectiveness of integrated user equilibrium demand model over the conventional four-stage demand estimation model. In addition, we also showed the user equilibrium model is more advantageous than dynamic simulation model which has been developed in recent years, for longer-term large scale projects.
As for the planning methods and process dealing with uncertainty and risk, we studied experiences of transport projects in Japan and other countries. These ex post case studies showed many types of uncertainty and risk during the planning/implementation process. Based upon these case studies and also the experience reported in other areas, we found the usefulness of "scenario analysis" which specifically separate background scenario from policy scenario and also the application of "safety factor" in the context of planning such as "Optimism Bias" uplift in England. Also, we found the increasing importance of dynamic adaptive planning process under the participation of stake-holders.
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Report
(3 results)
Research Products
(21 results)
