| Project/Area Number |
16H01844
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
NAKAMURA HISASHI 東京大学, 先端科学技術研究センター, 教授 (10251406)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
万田 敦昌 三重大学, 生物資源学研究科, 准教授 (00343343)
川瀬 宏明 気象庁気象研究所, 環境・応用気象研究部, 主任研究官 (20537287)
飯塚 聡 国立研究開発法人防災科学技術研究所, 水・土砂防災研究部門, 総括主任研究員 (40414403)
茂木 耕作 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 大気海洋相互作用研究分野, 研究員 (70421881)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥40,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥30,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥9,270,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥9,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,100,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥9,230,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,130,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥9,360,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,160,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥12,480,000 (Direct Cost: ¥9,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,880,000)
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| Keywords | 自然災害予測・分析 / 気象・水災害 / 水災害 豪雨 / 豪雨・豪雪 / 領域大気モデル / 温暖化 / 集中豪雨 / 平成30年7月（西日本）豪雨 / 海面水温上昇 / 豪雨災害 / 大気モデル / 自然災害 / 防災 / 気象 / 気候変動 / 予報実験 / 高解像度海面水温データ / 豪雪 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Contributions to heavy rainfall/snowfall events over Japan from the surrounding ocean have been overlooked, but the present study has revealed their critical importance. First, uncertainties in sea-surface temperature (SST) data used as the lower-boundary condition for atmospheric models are found to yield substantial uncertainties in predicted distributions of convective rainfall and snowfall. Second, during the torrential rainfall event over western Japan in early July 2018, the warmness of the Kuroshio is found to sustain enhanced evaporation even under the extremely strong southerlies from the Tropics, exerting a modest but significant contribution to the extreme rainfall. Third, an unambiguous warming trend observed in the surrounding ocean under the anthropogenic global warming is found to lead potentially to a modest but significant rainfall increase during the event over western Japan in early July 2018 and another event in the northern Kyushu region in early July 2017.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
日本近海の海流などに伴う海面水温の細かな分布や近年の水温上昇が豪雨・豪雪に及ぼす影響は従来看過されてきたが，その重要性が本研究により明確に示されたことは，豪雨・豪雪の数値天気予報の精度向上に資する重要な成果であり，今後の我が国の防災・減災対策に向けても意義深いものである．
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