| Budget Amount *help |
¥11,310,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,610,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥5,330,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,230,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
By integrating the quasi spices theory with infectious disease modelling, we developed a mathematical model of viral sequences, infection, and herd immunity. Actual observations of viral sequences and the number of reported cases of H1N1 2009 pandemic viruses were integrated into computer simulations, and parameters in the model were estimated by the data assimilation technique called the particle filter. For every 30 days 100,000 simulations were ran and filter distributions of parameters were calculated using amino acid sequences observed in the corresponding periods. Six-month period predictions were made using the estimated parameters. As a result, the developed method predicts the actual amino acid substitutions on the hemagglutinin molecule with a precision ratio of 79% and recall ratio of 53% .
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