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Do Global Value Chains Enlarge the Economic Effects of the TPP? A Multi-country CGE Analysis

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16H03616
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Economic policy
Research InstitutionOsaka University

Principal Investigator

Lee Hiro  大阪大学, 国際公共政策研究科, 名誉教授 (40283460)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 大槻 恒裕  大阪大学, 国際公共政策研究科, 教授 (40397633)
板倉 健  名古屋市立大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (90405217)
Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,810,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥5,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,260,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥5,850,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,350,000)
Keywordsグローバル・バリューチェーン / GVC / TPP / CPTPP / RCEP / CGEモデル / 経済政策 / TPP11 / CGE / global value chains
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The objectives of this research are twofold. First, we estimate the cost of U.S. withdrawal from the TPP. Second, we construct a dynamic CGE model that incorporates global value chains (GVCs), quantify the welfare and sectoral output effects of the the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TPP (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and compare the results with those obtained from a conventional dynamic CGE model. The results suggest that the United States would lose an opportunity to gain about $200 billion in its real GDP by 2035 when it never becomes a member of the TPP/CPTPP. When the GVC structure is added to a dynamic CGE model, the magnitudes of changes in sectoral output under the CPTPP and RCEP are projected to become considerably greater in a number of industries. By contrast, the welfare effects are relatively similar between the models with and without the GVC structure.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

近年、国際貿易の約半分はグローバル・バリューチェーン(GVC)を通じて行われ、製品が組み立てられて取引される前に、多くの部品がいくつかの国境を越えている。GVC構造を組み込んだ動学的CGEモデルを構築することにより、TPP/CPTPPなどのメガFTAの影響をより正確に推定することができる。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2019 Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • 2016 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (50 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (2 results) Journal Article (14 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 7 results,  Open Access: 11 results) Presentation (30 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 25 results,  Invited: 5 results) Book (4 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Center for Global Trade Analysis/Purdue University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Center for Global Trade Analysis/Purdue University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Evaluating the Impact of the US-China Trade War2020

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken
    • Journal Title

      Asian Economic Policy Review

      Volume: 15 Issue: 1 Pages: 77-93

    • DOI

      10.1111/aepr.12286

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Estimating the Effects of the CPTPP and RCEP in a General Equilibrium Framework with Global Value Chains2019

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken; Lee, Hiro
    • Journal Title

      GTAP Resource

      Volume: 5712 Pages: 1-19

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of EMS Standards on the Firms’ Attitude towards Product Safety2019

    • Author(s)
      Duong, Lan Huong; Otsuki, Tsunehiro; Michida, Etsuyo
    • Journal Title

      ERIA Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: DP-2018-07 Pages: 1-29

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Does ISO14001 raise firms' awareness of environmental protection? The case of Vietnam.2019

    • Author(s)
      Bin Ni, Hanae Tamechika, Tsunehiro Otsuki, Keiichiro Honda
    • Journal Title

      Environment and Development Economics

      Volume: 24(1) Issue: 1 Pages: 47-66

    • DOI

      10.1017/s1355770x18000396

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] How Differing Trade Policies May Impact U.S. Agriculture: The Potential Economic Impacts of TPP, USMCA, and NAFTA2019

    • Author(s)
      Chepeliev, Maksym; Tyner, Wallace E.; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
    • Journal Title

      SSRN Electronic Journal

      Volume: - Pages: 1-30

    • DOI

      10.2139/ssrn.3346662

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The welfare and sectoral adjustment effects of mega-regional trade agreements on ASEAN countries2018

    • Author(s)
      Lee Hiro、Itakura Ken
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Asian Economics

      Volume: 55 Pages: 20-32

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.asieco.2017.09.001

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Structure Demand Estimation of the Response to Food Safety Regulations in the Japanese Poultry Market2018

    • Author(s)
      Yang, Qizhong; Honda, Keiichiro; Otsuki, Tsunehiro
    • Journal Title

      OSIPP Discussion Paper

      Volume: DP-2018-E-003 Pages: 1-35

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Product-Related Environmental Regulation, Innovation, and Competitiveness: Empirical Evidence from Malaysian and Vietnamese Firms2017

    • Author(s)
      Yang, Qizhong; Otsuki, Tsunehiro
    • Journal Title

      OSIPP Discussion Paper

      Volume: DP-2017-E-007 Pages: 1-37

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Production Patterns of Multinational Enterprises: The Knowledge-Capital Model Revisited2017

    • Author(s)
      Oyamada, Kazuhiko
    • Journal Title

      IDE Discussion Paper

      Volume: 674 Pages: 1-49

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] How Does BREXIT Affect Production Patterns of Multinational Enterprises?2017

    • Author(s)
      Oyamada, Kazuhiko
    • Journal Title

      IDE Discussion Paper

      Volume: 690 Pages: 1-19

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Evaluating the Asian International Input-Output Table in Comparison with the Three Major Multiregional Input-Output Tables2017

    • Author(s)
      Uchida, Yoko, and Kazuhiko Oyamada
    • Journal Title

      IDE Discussion Paper

      Volume: 663 Pages: 1-23

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The rise and fall of multinational enterprises in Vietnam: survival analysis using census data during 2000-20112017

    • Author(s)
      Tien Vu Manh, Hiroyuki Yamada and Tsunehiro Otsuki
    • Journal Title

      Asian Economic Journal

      Volume: 31 Issue: 1 Pages: 83-109

    • DOI

      10.1111/asej.12114

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Implementing a Computable General Equilibrium Model with Heterogeneous Firms and Endogenous Productivity2016

    • Author(s)
      Roson, Roberto, and Kazuhiko Oyamada
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics

      Volume: 6(4) Issue: 4 Pages: 432-451

    • DOI

      10.1504/ijcee.2016.079535

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] TPP協定の影響を予測する:CGEモデルを用いたFTAの事前効果分析2016

    • Author(s)
      板倉 健
    • Journal Title

      世界経済評論

      Volume: 2016(11-12) Pages: 83-92

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] General Equilibrium Evaluation of the CPTPP and RCEP with Global Value Chains2019

    • Author(s)
      Lee, Hiro
    • Organizer
      The WEAI 15th International Conference
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimating the Effects of the CPTPP and RCEP in a General Equilibrium Framework with Global Value Chains2019

    • Author(s)
      Lee, Hiro
    • Organizer
      The 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Incorporating Global Value Chains into the Dynamic GTAP Model2019

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken
    • Organizer
      The 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Global Value Chains and Trade Response to Trade War2019

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken
    • Organizer
      The 78th Annual Meeting of the Japan Society of International Economics
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Estimating Costs to the U.S. Economy of Not Participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership2018

    • Author(s)
      Lee, Hiro
    • Organizer
      The International Conference on Economic Modeling (EcoMod2018)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Winners and Losers from the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership2018

    • Author(s)
      Lee, Hiro
    • Organizer
      The 14th Annual Conference of the Asia-Pacific Economic Association
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Do Global Value Chains Enlarge the Economic Effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements?2018

    • Author(s)
      Lee, Hiro
    • Organizer
      The 16th International Convention of the East Asian Economic Association
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] CGE Simulation of the ASEAN Economic Community and RCEP under Long-term Productivity Scenarios2018

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken
    • Organizer
      The 21st Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Structural Demand Estimation of the Response to Food Safety Regulations in the Japanese Poultry Market2018

    • Author(s)
      Yang, Qizhong; Honda, Keiichiro; Otsuki, Tsunehiro
    • Organizer
      Eurasia Business and Economics Society
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] RCEP Using GTAP Simulation2017

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken
    • Organizer
      The Workshop on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
    • Place of Presentation
      ANA Tokyo Hotel(東京都・港区)
    • Year and Date
      2017-03-22
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] U.S. Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Effects of Alternative Trade Integration Scenarios in the Asia-Pacific2017

    • Author(s)
      Lee, Hiro
    • Organizer
      The International Conference on Economic Integration and Economic Growth
    • Place of Presentation
      シアトル市(米国)
    • Year and Date
      2017-03-18
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Consumer Safety and Technical Regulations2017

    • Author(s)
      大槻 恒裕
    • Organizer
      国際経済学セミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学(京都府・京都市)
    • Year and Date
      2017-02-23
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The Welfare and Sectoral Adjustment Effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements on ASEAN Countries2017

    • Author(s)
      Lee, Hiro
    • Organizer
      The Conference on Trade, Industrialization and Structural Reforms in ASEAN
    • Place of Presentation
      ホーチミン市(ベトナム)
    • Year and Date
      2017-01-09
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Trade Response of Armington-Krugman-Melitz Encompassing Module in A CGE Model: Case of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement2017

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken
    • Organizer
      The Conference on Trade, Industrialization and Structural Reforms in ASEAN
    • Place of Presentation
      ホーチミン市(ベトナム)
    • Year and Date
      2017-01-09
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Potential Costs of U.S. Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership2017

    • Author(s)
      Lee, Hiro
    • Organizer
      20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Ponder the Difference between the Trade Specifications in a CGE Model: AKME Module and Import Sourcing2017

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken
    • Organizer
      20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Behavioral Characteristics of Applied General Equilibrium Models with Variable Elasticity of Substitution between Varieties from Different Sources2017

    • Author(s)
      Oyamada, Kazuhiko
    • Organizer
      20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Consumer Reaction to Food Safety Standards on Imported Foods2017

    • Author(s)
      Otsuki, Tsunehiro
    • Organizer
      International Symposium on Food Credence Attributes
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Analyses on How NTMs Affect Trade in Goods and Welfare in ASEAN2017

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken
    • Organizer
      Workshop of ERIA-UNCTAD: NTMs in ASEAN
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Effect of Non-Tariff Measures as Fixed Costs on Trade and Welfare: A Case of ASEAN Countries2017

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken
    • Organizer
      76th Annual Meeting of the Japan Society of International Economics
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] An Analysis of the Trade Impact of Food Safety Standards using the Generalized Gravity Model2017

    • Author(s)
      Otsuki, Tsunehiro
    • Organizer
      2017年度関西支部第3回研究会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Behavioral Characteristics of Applied General Equilibrium Models with Variable Elasticity of Substitution between Varieties from Different Sources2017

    • Author(s)
      Oyamada, Kazuhiko
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Economic Modeling (EcoMod2017)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Consumer Safety and Technical Regulation -消費者の安全と技術規制-2016

    • Author(s)
      大槻 恒裕
    • Organizer
      リスク研究センター開発経済学先端セミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      滋賀大学(滋賀県・彦根市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-24
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] A Numerical General Equilibrium Analysis of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Agricultural Reforms in Japan2016

    • Author(s)
      Lee, Hiro
    • Organizer
      The 2016 Asia Meeting of the Econometric Society
    • Place of Presentation
      同志社大学(京都府・京都市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-08-11
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Whither AEC 2025-2030? A CGE Analysis of TPP and RCEP2016

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken
    • Organizer
      ASEAN at 50 Technical Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      ジャカルタ市(インドネシア)
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-15
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Is FTA/EPA Effective for a Developing Country to Attract FDI? The Knowledge-Capital Model Revisited2016

    • Author(s)
      Oyamada, Kazuhiko
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Economic Modeling (EcoMod2016)
    • Place of Presentation
      リスボン市(ポルトガル)
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-06
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership for Japan: Agricultural Policy Reforms and Productivity Gains2016

    • Author(s)
      Lee, Hiro
    • Organizer
      The 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
    • Place of Presentation
      ワシントン市(米国)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-15
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Trade Response of Armington-Krugman-Melitz Encompassing Module in A CGE Model: Case of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement2016

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken
    • Organizer
      The 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
    • Place of Presentation
      ワシントン市(米国)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-15
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Is FTA/EPA Effective for a Developing Country to Attract FDI? The Knowledge-Capital Model Revisited2016

    • Author(s)
      Oyamada, Kazuhiko
    • Organizer
      The 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
    • Place of Presentation
      ワシントン市(米国)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-15
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Economic Impact of Economic Integration Initiative in ASEAN and East Asia: A CGE Analysis Using Dynamic GTAP Model2016

    • Author(s)
      Itakura, Ken
    • Organizer
      The 13th PEP General Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      マニラ市(フィリピン)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-07
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] Regional Integration and Non-Tariff Measures in ASEAN2019

    • Author(s)
      Ing , L.Y.; Peters, L.; Cadot, O. (Itakura, Ken: pp.27-39 担当)
    • Total Pages
      13
    • Publisher
      Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia
    • ISBN
      9786025460180
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] East Asian Integration: Goods, Services and Investment2019

    • Author(s)
      Ing, L.Y.; Richardson, M.; Urata, S. (Itakura, Ken: pp.25-46 担当)
    • Total Pages
      22
    • Publisher
      Routledge
    • ISBN
      9781138359628
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Consumer Perception of Food Attributes2018

    • Author(s)
      Matsumoto, Shigeru; Otsuki, Tsunehiro
    • Total Pages
      306
    • Publisher
      CRC Press
    • ISBN
      9781138196841
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] The ASEAN Economic Community Into 2025 and Beyond2017

    • Author(s)
      Maria, R.S., Urata, S. and Intal, P. S., eds. (Itakura, Ken: pp.233-244 担当)
    • Total Pages
      12
    • Publisher
      Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia
    • ISBN
      9786025460005
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2022-02-28  

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