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Mechanisms and Predictability of Coastal Ninos

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16H04047
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

TOZUKA TOMOKI  東京大学, 大学院理学系研究科(理学部), 准教授 (40376538)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 山形 俊男  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 付加価値情報創生部門(アプリケーションラボ), その他 (50091400)
Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥5,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,260,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥7,410,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,710,000)
Keywords沿岸ニーニョ現象 / 気候変動 / 大気海洋相互作用 / 海洋物理・陸水学
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, we have clarified the mechanisms of coastal nino phenomena (i.e. an El Nino-like phenomena associated with anomalously warm sea surface temperatures) such as the Ningaloo Nino off the west coast of Australia through data analyses and simulations. Furthermore, we have succeeded in improving the prediction skills of the coastal nino phenomena that cause abnormal weather in adjacent areas and have devastating impacts on local marine ecosystem.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

この10年くらいの間に相次いで発見され、メカニズムが完全に理解されていなかった沿岸ニーニョ現象のメカニズムを明らかにすることに成功した。また、沿岸ニーニョ現象は、空間スケールが比較的小さいことから予測することが難しいとされてきたが、本研究の予測に関する研究成果は、沿岸ニーニョ現象が引き起こす様々な異常気象や生態系への影響を軽減することに貢献するものである。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2019 Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • 2016 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (39 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (3 results) Journal Article (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 6 results,  Open Access: 1 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (29 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 17 results,  Invited: 6 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] LOCEAN/IPSL(フランス)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] NOAA PMEL(米国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] CMCC(イタリア)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Contribution of oceanic wave propagation from the tropical Pacific to asymmetry of the Ningaloo Nino/Nina2020

    • Author(s)
      Kusunoki Hidehiro、Kido Shoichiro、Tozuka Tomoki
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: - Issue: 11-12 Pages: 4865-4875

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-020-05268-5

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Can Ningaloo Nino/Nina Develop Without El Nino/Southern Oscillation?2018

    • Author(s)
      Kataoka Takahito、Masson Sebastien、Izumo Takeshi、Tozuka Tomoki、Yamagata Toshio
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 45 Issue: 14 Pages: 7040-7048

    • DOI

      10.1029/2018gl078188

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Asymmetric Cloud-Shortwave Radiation-Sea Surface Temperature Feedback of Ningaloo Ni?o/Ni?a2018

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T., and P. Oettli
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 45 Issue: 18 Pages: 9870-9879

    • DOI

      10.1029/2018gl079869

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Improved Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode by Use of Subsurface Ocean Observations2017

    • Author(s)
      Doi, T., A. Storto, S.K. Behera, A. Navarra, and T. Yamagata
    • Journal Title

      J. Climate

      Volume: 30 Issue: 19 Pages: 7953-7970

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-16-0915.1

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Generation and Decay Mechanisms of Ningaloo Nino/Nina2017

    • Author(s)
      Kataoka, T., T. Tozuka, and T. Yamagata
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

      Volume: 122 Issue: 11 Pages: 8913-8932

    • DOI

      10.1002/2017jc012966

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Salinity Variability Associated with the Positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on the Upper Ocean Temperature2017

    • Author(s)
      Kido Shoichiro、Tozuka Tomoki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 30 Issue: 19 Pages: 7885-7907

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-17-0133.1

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Improved seasonal prediction using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model2016

    • Author(s)
      Doi T., S. K. Behera, and T. Yamagata
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

      Volume: 8 Issue: 4 Pages: 1847-1867

    • DOI

      10.1002/2016ms000744

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Contribution of ENSO related oceanic teleconnection to asymmetry of the Ningaloo Nino/Nina2020

    • Author(s)
      Kusunoki, H., S. Kido, and T. Tozuka
    • Organizer
      2020 Ocean Sciences Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 熱帯太平洋からの海洋波動の伝播がニンガルー・ニーニョ現象の非対称性に与える影響について2019

    • Author(s)
      楠 秀大、木戸 晶一郎、東塚 知己
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星連合2019年大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Generation mechanisms of the Benguela Nino with a focus on local amplification2019

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T., and R. Kobayashi
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星連合2019年大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Asymmetric cloud-shortwave radiation-sea surface temperature feedback of the Ningaloo Nino/Nina off the west coast of Australia2019

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T., and P. Oettli
    • Organizer
      27th IUGG General Assembly
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Local amplification mechanism of the Benguela Nino2019

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T., and R. Kobayashi
    • Organizer
      27th IUGG General Assembly
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 局所増幅過程に着目したベンゲラ・ニーニョ現象の形成メカニズム2019

    • Author(s)
      小林 諒、東塚 知己
    • Organizer
      2019年度日本海洋学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 熱帯太平洋からの海洋波動の伝播がニンガルー・ニーニョ現象の非対称性に与える影響について2019

    • Author(s)
      楠 秀大、木戸 晶一郎、東塚 知己
    • Organizer
      2019年度日本海洋学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Potential changes in Ningaloo Nino associated with global warming2019

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      International workshop on future climate change
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] One hundred parallel worlds in seasonal prediction2018

    • Author(s)
      土井 威志, S. K. Behera, 山形俊男
    • Organizer
      Ocean Sciences Meeting 2018
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A metric for surface heat flux effect on horizontal SST gradients2018

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T., S. Ohishi, and Meghan F. Cronin
    • Organizer
      Ocean Sciences Meeting 2018
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 海洋亜表層観測データを用いた初期値補正とインド洋ダイポールモード現象の予測精度向上について2017

    • Author(s)
      土井 威志, A. Storto, S. K. Behera, 山形俊男
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 海洋亜表層観測データを用いた初期値補正とインド洋ダイポールモード現象の予測精度向上について2017

    • Author(s)
      土井 威志, A. Storto, S. K. Behera, 山形俊男
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 100アンサンブルメンバーによる季節予測実験 -極端イベントの確率予測精度の向上2017

    • Author(s)
      土井 威志, S. K. Behera, 山形俊男
    • Organizer
      2017年度日本海洋学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 100アンサンブルメンバーによる季節予測実験 -極端イベントの確率予測精度の向上2017

    • Author(s)
      土井 威志, S. K. Behera, 山形俊男
    • Organizer
      「様々な結合過程がもたらす異常気象の実態とそのメカニズム」に関する研究集会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Coastal Nino/Nina phenomena in the eastern boundary upwelling systems2017

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      Seminar at the Yonsei University
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 海面熱フラックスによる海面水温勾配の強化・緩和:メトリックの提案2017

    • Author(s)
      東塚 知己、大石 俊、Meghan F. Cronin
    • Organizer
      2017年度日本海洋学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Relative importance of the processes contributing to the development of SST anomalies in the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole and its implication for predictability2017

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T., C. Tanizaki, T. Doi, and T. Yamagata
    • Organizer
      Symposium on Past, Present, Future of Predicting Ocean and Climate Variability
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Ocean, climate and society2017

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      Symposium on "Past, Present, Future of Predicting Ocean and Climate Variability"
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Is predictability of Indian Ocean Dipole events dependent on the developing mechanism?2016

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T., C. Tanizaki, and T. Doi
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 2016
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Generation and decay mechanism of Ningaloo Nino2016

    • Author(s)
      Kataoka, T., T. Tozuka, and T. Yamagata
    • Organizer
      AGU 2016 Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] New Climate Modes and Rich Applicability of Seasonal Climate Prediction2016

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      OCEANS ’16 MTS/IEEE
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 新しい気候変動現象の発見と最近の異常気象2016

    • Author(s)
      山形俊男
    • Organizer
      第132回海洋フォーラム
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Prediction of Climate Variation and its Rich Application to Societies for Sustainable Developmen2016

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      AASSA-NAST PHL Workshop on the Role of Science Academies in Sustainable Development in conjunction with the 2016 Climate Conference on Addressing Climate Risk for Sustainable Development
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Prediction of Climate Variation and its Rich Application to Societies for Sustainable Development2016

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      AOSHAN FORUM: Workshop on Western Pacific Ocean Circulation and Climate-Past, Present, and Future
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Climate Variability Prediction and Application2016

    • Author(s)
      Behera, S. K., T. Doi, Y. Morioka, and J. V. Ratnam
    • Organizer
      JAMSTEC-VIGMR Workshop
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] SINTEX-F2 seasonal prediction system2016

    • Author(s)
      Doi, T., S.K. Behera, and T. Yamagata
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星連合大会2016
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Predictability of the California Nino/Nina2016

    • Author(s)
      Doi, T., C. Yuan, S.K. Behera, and T. Yamagata
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星連合大会2016
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The SINTEX-F2 seasonal prediction system2016

    • Author(s)
      Doi, T., S.K. Behera, and T. Yamagata
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 2016
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Coastal Nino prediction -new potential source ofseasonal predictability in the mid-latitudes-2016

    • Author(s)
      Doi, T., S.K. Behera, and T. Yamagata
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 2016
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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