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Development of Risk Assessment Method for Evaluating Risk Control Option Based on International Regulation

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16H04604
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Naval and maritime engineering
Research InstitutionKyushu University

Principal Investigator

Shinoda Takeshi  九州大学, 工学研究院, 教授 (80235548)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 田中 太氏  九州大学, 工学研究院, 准教授 (70432854)
Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥14,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,420,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥5,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,260,000)
Keywordsリスクアセスメント / Formal Safety Assessment / 海難事故 / ヒューマンファクター / リスク軽減対策 / Formal safety assessment / 人的得要因 / 海上安全 / 人的要因 / 船舶工学
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The revised guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) approved by IMO (International Maritime Organization) in 2013. The aim of research is to establish a risk assessment method for ship’s design and service that is provided as a complement for FSA. In this research, we examine the application of the Bayesian network for accident occurrence modeling, which can reveal the causal relationships between human factors in maneuvering vessels and ship collisions. The risk analysis model for the collision accidents using the Bayesian network consists of three major components which are; a) the model of ship maneuvering, b) the model of collision factors and, c) the model of effective factors for Risk Control Options (RCOs) as safety measures to reduce collision risks. Finally the gross cost of averting fatality index in the guidelines are considered as cost benefit analysis for RCOs. The key concept of risk analysis is to keep consistency through data analysis.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

IMOにおいて制定されたFSAは,事故の事前対処による国際ルールの策定に効果が高く今後の国際基準作成の鍵になると考えられているが,これまでにFSAが適用された対象が限定的であり,確率的リスク評価のためのあいまい性の排除や費用対効果の把握方法の検討を必要としている。特に人的要因の関わる海難事故については,確率事象の表現があいまいになり,事前対処のための安全対策のリスクアセスメントへの展開が難しい状況である。本研究では人間の認知・情報処理理論により操船時の人的過誤モデルの構築を図り,これを基に海難データベースの骨格の作成からリスク解析と安全対策の費用対効果の評価を一貫させる手法の構築を図った。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • 2016 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (35 results)

All 2018 2017 2016 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (15 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 10 results,  Open Access: 2 results) Presentation (19 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 9 results,  Invited: 2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] スラバヤ工科大学/インドネシア大学(インドネシア)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The Implementation of Traffic Separation Scheme in the Sunda Strait and Its Future Impacts2018

    • Author(s)
      Fadilla Indrayuni Prastyasari, Takeshi Shinoda
    • Journal Title

      Proceeding of 3rd International Conference on Marine Technology

      Volume: 3

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 衛星画像による海上交通量の推定法と衝突海難のリスク評価に関する研究2018

    • Author(s)
      篠田岳思、渡川 真規、瓜生浩二
    • Journal Title

      日本航海学会講演予稿集

      Volume: K139

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 21世紀型の造船業とは何か2018

    • Author(s)
      篠田岳思
    • Journal Title

      日本船舶海洋工学会講演会論文集

      Volume: 27

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] TOC思考を活用したSystem of systemsの経営的考察2018

    • Author(s)
      土井裕文、篠田岳思
    • Journal Title

      日本船舶海洋工学会講演会論文集

      Volume: 27

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] TOC思考法による戦略的な造船経営計画に関する研究2018

    • Author(s)
      土井裕文、篠田岳思
    • Journal Title

      日本船舶海洋工学会講演会論文集

      Volume: 26

    • NAID

      40021746379

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Design Evaluation Methodology for Ship's Outfitting Equipment by Applying Multi-criteria Analysis2018

    • Author(s)
      I.G. N. Buana, Katuhiko Yano, Takeshi Shinoda
    • Journal Title

      Proceeding of 3rd International Conference on Marine Technology

      Volume: 3

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Study on Noise Control System for in Ship Superstructure to satisfy the IMO Regulations on Noise Levels Onboard Ships2018

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Tanaka, Yo Takeshita, Takeshi Shinoda
    • Journal Title

      Proceeding of Advance Maritime Engineering Conference 2018

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Establishing Database for Basic Design of General Arrangement for Ship's Superstructure2018

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Tanaka, Takeshi Shinoda, Putu Hangga Nan Prayoga
    • Journal Title

      Proceeding of Advance Maritime Engineering Conference 2018

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Study of Improvement of Productivity of Indonesia Shipbuilding with Theory of Constraints2018

    • Author(s)
      Hirofumi Doi, Takeshi Shinoda
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Marine Engineering Innovation and Research

      Volume: Vol.2, No.2 Pages: 102-111

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Evaluation of Container Terminal Arrangement by Computer Simulation2018

    • Author(s)
      Takeshi Shinoda, Hideyo Inutsuka, Putu Hangga, Tiago Novaes Mathias
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Marine Engineering Innovation and Research

      Volume: Vol.2, No.2 Pages: 140-149

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Establishing the Amount of Ship Recycling Activity using Remote Sensing Application2018

    • Author(s)
      Masanori WATAGAWA, Takeshi SHINODA, Kazuhiko HASEGAWA
    • Journal Title

      International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Science

      Volume: KLI-B8 Pages: 1195-1200

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] ベイジアンネットを適用した衝突海難のリスク解析に関する研究 ー大型船同士の衝突事故への適用ー2017

    • Author(s)
      篠田岳思、Hyunsung Oh、瓜生浩二
    • Journal Title

      日本船舶海洋工学会講演会論文集

      Volume: 第24号 Pages: 649-650

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Applied Bayesian Network Model for Risk Assessment for Ship Collision2016

    • Author(s)
      Takeshi SHINODA, Ryoma NASU, Koji URU
    • Journal Title

      Design for safety conference 2016

      Volume: 6 Pages: 243-252

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 効率的な船上試験方案の実施のための評価に関する研究2016

    • Author(s)
      矢野勝久,篠田岳思
    • Journal Title

      日本船舶海洋工学会講演会論文集

      Volume: 22 Pages: 415-416

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Evaluation of Body Heat Stress for Working under Hot Environments in Shipyards2016

    • Author(s)
      Takeshi SHINODA, Jun TAKEUCHI
    • Journal Title

      The Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers

      Volume: 1

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Developing a Risk Assessment Model for Ship Collisions that Incorporates Human Factors2018

    • Author(s)
      Takeshi Shinoda
    • Organizer
      2018 the first Maritime Safety International Conference
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Risk assessment for marine accidents in Indonesia2018

    • Author(s)
      Takeshi Shinoda
    • Organizer
      2018 the first Maritime Safety International Conference
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] The Implementation of Traffic Separation Scheme in the Sunda Strait and Its Future Impacts2018

    • Author(s)
      Fadilla Indrayuni Prastyasari
    • Organizer
      The 3rd International Conference on Marine Technology (SENTA) 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 衛星画像による海上交通量の推定法と衝突海難のリスク評価に関する研究2018

    • Author(s)
      渡川 真規
    • Organizer
      日本航海学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 21世紀型の造船業とは何か2018

    • Author(s)
      篠田岳思
    • Organizer
      日本船舶海洋工学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] TOC思考を活用したSystem of systemsの経営的考察2018

    • Author(s)
      篠田岳思
    • Organizer
      日本船舶海洋工学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] TOC思考法による戦略的な造船経営計画に関する研究2018

    • Author(s)
      土井裕文
    • Organizer
      日本船舶海洋工学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Design Evaluation Methodology for Ship's Outfitting Equipment by Applying Multi-criteria Analysis2018

    • Author(s)
      I.G. N. Buana
    • Organizer
      The 3rd International Conference on Marine Technology (SENTA) 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Study on Noise Control System for in Ship Superstructure to satisfy the IMO Regulations on Noise Levels Onboard Ships2018

    • Author(s)
      Yo Takeshita
    • Organizer
      Advance Maritime Engineering Conference 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Establishing Database for Basic Design of General Arrangement for Ship's Superstructure2018

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Tanaka
    • Organizer
      Advance Maritime Engineering Conference 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 衛星画像を用いた海上交通量の推定と衝突海難リスク評価に関する研究2017

    • Author(s)
      瓜生浩二
    • Organizer
      日本航海学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] ベイジアンネットを適用した衝突海難のリスク解析に関する研究2017

    • Author(s)
      Hyunsung Oh
    • Organizer
      日本船舶海洋工学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 自動車運搬船における船倉内の換気制御に関する研究2017

    • Author(s)
      篠田岳思
    • Organizer
      日本航海学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] コンテナターミナルにおける電動RTGの電力ピーク抑制時の荷役性評価に関する研究2017

    • Author(s)
      犬塚秀世
    • Organizer
      日本航海学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] TOC制約理論による造船業の改善計画に関する研究2017

    • Author(s)
      土井裕文
    • Organizer
      日本船舶海洋工学会講演会論文集
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Applied Bayesian Network Model for Risk Assessment for Ship Collision2016

    • Author(s)
      Takeshi SHINODA
    • Organizer
      Design for safety conference
    • Place of Presentation
      DNV-GL, Hamburg, Germany
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-28
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Evaluation of Body Heat Stress for Working under Hot Environments in Shipyards2016

    • Author(s)
      Jun TAKEUCHI
    • Organizer
      The Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers
    • Place of Presentation
      the Hyatt Regency Bellevue, Bellevue, Washington, US
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-01
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Establishing the Amount of Ship Recycling Activity using Remote Sensing Application2016

    • Author(s)
      Masanori WATAGAWA,
    • Organizer
      International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Science
    • Place of Presentation
      Prague,Czech Republic
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-12
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 効率的な船上試験方案の実施のための評価に関する研究2016

    • Author(s)
      矢野勝久
    • Organizer
      日本船舶海洋工学会講演会論文集
    • Place of Presentation
      福岡県中小企業振興センター
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-26
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2020-03-30  

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