| Project/Area Number |
16H04604
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Naval and maritime engineering
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| Research Institution | Kyushu University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
田中 太氏 九州大学, 工学研究院, 准教授 (70432854)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥14,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,420,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥5,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,260,000)
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| Keywords | リスクアセスメント / Formal Safety Assessment / 海難事故 / ヒューマンファクター / リスク軽減対策 / Formal safety assessment / 人的得要因 / 海上安全 / 人的要因 / 船舶工学 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The revised guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) approved by IMO (International Maritime Organization) in 2013. The aim of research is to establish a risk assessment method for ship’s design and service that is provided as a complement for FSA. In this research, we examine the application of the Bayesian network for accident occurrence modeling, which can reveal the causal relationships between human factors in maneuvering vessels and ship collisions. The risk analysis model for the collision accidents using the Bayesian network consists of three major components which are; a) the model of ship maneuvering, b) the model of collision factors and, c) the model of effective factors for Risk Control Options (RCOs) as safety measures to reduce collision risks. Finally the gross cost of averting fatality index in the guidelines are considered as cost benefit analysis for RCOs. The key concept of risk analysis is to keep consistency through data analysis.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
IMOにおいて制定されたFSAは，事故の事前対処による国際ルールの策定に効果が高く今後の国際基準作成の鍵になると考えられているが，これまでにFSAが適用された対象が限定的であり，確率的リスク評価のためのあいまい性の排除や費用対効果の把握方法の検討を必要としている。特に人的要因の関わる海難事故については，確率事象の表現があいまいになり，事前対処のための安全対策のリスクアセスメントへの展開が難しい状況である。本研究では人間の認知・情報処理理論により操船時の人的過誤モデルの構築を図り，これを基に海難データベースの骨格の作成からリスク解析と安全対策の費用対効果の評価を一貫させる手法の構築を図った。
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