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Seamless Risk Analysis Study Considering Event Progression Dynamic

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16H04627
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Nuclear engineering
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

Yamaguchi Akira  東京大学, 大学院工学系研究科(工学部), 教授 (10403156)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥8,710,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,010,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Keywordsリスク評価 / 安全性 / 原子力 / リスク管理 / 原子力エネルギー / システム工学 / マルコフ過程 / 原子力安全 / ベイジアンネットワーク / マルチユニットリスク / 状態遷移確率 / リスク / モンテカルロ法 / シビアアクシデント / 統計的解析 / 伝熱流動
Outline of Final Research Achievements

As a method to quantify the accident scenario of the engineering system, we dealt with uncertainty propagation and developed a method directly related to the mechanistic analysis of physical processes. Coupling between continuous Markov process Monte Carlo method and mechanistic model was carried out, and methodology was established to assess the risk of dynamic and uncertain system behavior of events, as well as to match the progress of physical phenomena and events. These were applied to nuclear facilities, and it was shown that probabilistic risk assessments from Level 1 (core damage) to Level 2 (release of radioactive materials) can be performed seamlessly and consistently.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

原子力分野をはじめ多くの工学分野で実施される確率論的リスク評価を、より現実の物理現象や事象の進展に整合するように、また評価の結果が実際的なリスク管理に適用できるよう革新的進展をもたらす研究である。安全対策が適切に施される工学施設の重大な事故のリスク評価は想定を超える事象を扱う必要がある。しかし、リスク評価モデルは工学施設設計で予め規定された安全機能が喪失する確率とその影響を評価対象としてきたため、想定を超える事象への適用に限界がある。実際のシステム挙動は動的で不確かで不連続である。このようなシステム挙動にかかるリスクを評価する方法論を確立することに貢献した。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • 2016 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (15 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016

All Journal Article (3 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 3 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (12 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results,  Invited: 9 results)

  • [Journal Article] A novel method for risk-informed decision-making under non-ideal Instrumentation and Control conditions through the application of Bayes’ Theorem2019

    • Author(s)
      Tan Tu Guang、Jang Sunghyon、Yamaguchi Akira
    • Journal Title

      Reliability Engineering & System Safety

      Volume: 188 Pages: 463-472

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ress.2019.03.051

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Dynamic scenario quantification for level 2 PRA of sodium-cooled fast reactor based on continuous Markov chain and Monte Carlo method coupled with meta-model of thermalhydraulic analysis2018

    • Author(s)
      Sunghyon Jang, Akira Yamaguchi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology

      Volume: 50 Issue: 8 Pages: 1-9

    • DOI

      10.1080/00223131.2018.1445564

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report 2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Risk Assessment Strategy for Decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station2017

    • Author(s)
      Yamaguchi Akira、Jang Sunghyon、Hida Kazuki、Yamanaka Yasunori、Narumiya Yoshiyuki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology

      Volume: 49 Issue: 2 Pages: 442-449

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.net.2017.02.001

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Application of Baye’s Theorem for Risk Informed Decision Making at the Decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant2018

    • Author(s)
      T. Tan, S. Jang, and A. Yamaguchi
    • Organizer
      14th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM14)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Development of Multi-Unit Dependency Evaluation Model Using Markov Process and Monte Carlo Method2018

    • Author(s)
      S. Jang, and A. Yamaguchi
    • Organizer
      14th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM14)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 原子力発電所のライフタイムリスク管理に向けて2017

    • Author(s)
      山口 彰
    • Organizer
      日本電気協会第4回シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Risk Management Strategy for Uncertain Systems: Decommissioning of Fukushima Taiichi Nuclear Power Station2017

    • Author(s)
      Akira Yamaguchi
    • Organizer
      Complex System Design & Management
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 原子力リスクの評価と原子力防災のあり方2017

    • Author(s)
      山口 彰
    • Organizer
      日本学術会議主催学術フォーラム
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Confidence in Nuclear Safety under Uncertainties and Unknowns2017

    • Author(s)
      Akira Yamaguchi
    • Organizer
      PSA2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Japanese Implementation of Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment2017

    • Author(s)
      Akira Yamaguchi
    • Organizer
      Pacific Rim Forum 2017
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 原子力利用とリスク情報活用の前提について2017

    • Author(s)
      山口 彰
    • Organizer
      原子力と安全ワークショップ
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Risk Assessment Strategy for Decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station2016

    • Author(s)
      Akira Yamaguchi, Kazuki Hida, Yasunori Yamanaka, Yoshiyuki Narumiya
    • Organizer
      13th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident: What We Have Learned and Future Perspective2016

    • Author(s)
      Akira Yamaguchi
    • Organizer
      Annual Meeting of SNMMI
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Perspective of Risk Assessment and Management after 5 Years of Fukushima Dai-ichi Accident2016

    • Author(s)
      Akira Yamaguchi
    • Organizer
      13th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Integrated Safety Analysis Approach for Post-Fukushima Era2016

    • Author(s)
      Akira Yamaguchi
    • Organizer
      11th International Conference on Nuclear Thermal Hydraulics, Operations and Safety
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2020-03-30  

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