| Budget Amount *help |
¥17,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,990,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We conducted a study to predict the prevalence of infectious diseases by combining a mathematical model and its theory (theoretical ecology) described by a hybrid dynamical system with gene sequence information of pathogens (infectious disease epidemiology), which is accumulating as information worthy of big data, using a data assimilation method (computer science). Using a mathematical model and computer simulation based on the developed hybrid dynamical system, we analyzed the gene sequence data of seasonal influenza A that have been accumulated up to the present day. The complementary fusion of the theory of population dynamics and data assimilation methods historically used in ecology suggested the possibility of making breakthroughs in both data reproducibility and future prediction.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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