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Multiple risk assessment and cost effective analysis after a nuclear accident

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16H05894
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (A)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Environmental risk control and evaluation
Research InstitutionFukushima Medical University

Principal Investigator

Murakami Michio  福島県立医科大学, 医学部, 准教授 (50509932)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥19,110,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,410,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥5,720,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,320,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥5,720,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,320,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥5,720,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,320,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Keywordsリスク評価 / 福島第一原発事故 / 放射線被ばく / 生活習慣病 / 精神的ストレス / 費用効果分析 / 災害環境リスク管理
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study aimed to perform multiple risk assessment and cost effective analysis after the Fukushima accident and to provide insights regarding a risk management strategy under virtual nuclear accident scenarios. Risk of diabetes and psychological distress was more than one order of magnitude higher than that of radiation exposure after the Fukushima accident. Cost effectiveness of radiation protection measures including food distribution regulation, decontamination and a whole body counter test was more than one to four orders of magnitude higher than that of a general diabetes measure. Further, cost effectiveness of food distribution regulation and decontamination measures was investigated under virtual nuclear accident scenarios. This study highlighted the importance of multiple and well-balanced countermeasures against various risks caused by a nuclear accident.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では、除染などの放射線対策の効果を明らかにしつつ、福島原発事故でもたらされた糖尿病、心理的苦痛などの放射線以外の健康リスクについても定量的に放射線被ばくのリスクと比較することで、原発事故が放射線被ばくのみならず、身体的・精神的健康に関する様々なリスクをもたらすことを定量的・多角的に評価できた。さらに、原発事故後を想定したリスク管理対策の費用効果を明らかにした。このように、今後の福島復興のために最適なリスク削減対策を提案するとともに、事前の準備として、原発事故を想定したリスク管理戦略の構築に資する知見を提供できた。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • 2016 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (23 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016

All Journal Article (11 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 11 results,  Open Access: 11 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (12 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Invited: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Current Status and Issues of Health Risks Among Residents Affected by the Fukushima Nuclear Accident2019

    • Author(s)
      村上道夫
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Journal of Risk Analysis

      Volume: 28 Issue: 2 Pages: 63-66

    • DOI

      10.11447/sraj.28.63

    • NAID

      130007637991

    • ISSN
      0915-5465, 2185-4548
    • Year and Date
      2019-04-25
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Radiation doses and decontamination effects in Minamisoma city: airborne and individual monitoring after the Fukushima nuclear accident2019

    • Author(s)
      Tsubokura M, Yamamoto K
    • Journal Title

      J Radiol Prot

      Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Pages: 27-35

    • DOI

      10.1088/1361-6498/ab4e5a

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Worsening Health Status among Evacuees: Analysis of Medical Expenditures after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Nuclear Disaster in Fukushima2019

    • Author(s)
      Tsubokura M
    • Journal Title

      The Tohoku Journal of Experimental Medicine

      Volume: 248 Issue: 2 Pages: 115-123

    • DOI

      10.1620/tjem.248.115

    • NAID

      130007668325

    • ISSN
      0040-8727, 1349-3329
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Impact of decontamination on individual radiation doses from external exposure among residents of Minamisoma City after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant incident in Japan: a retrospective observational study2019

    • Author(s)
      Tsubokura M, Ozaki A, Sawano T, Kobashi Y
    • Journal Title

      J Radiol Prot

      Volume: 39 Issue: 3 Pages: 854-871

    • DOI

      10.1088/1361-6498/ab280e

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Estimation of dietary intake of radionuclides and effectiveness of regulation after the Fukushima accident and in virtual nuclear power plant accident scenarios2018

    • Author(s)
      Michio Murakami, Takao Nirasawa, Takao Yoshikane, Keisuke Sueki, Kimikazu Sasa and Kei Yoshimura
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

      Volume: 15(8) Issue: 8 Pages: 1589-1589

    • DOI

      10.3390/ijerph15081589

    • NAID

      120007133839

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] New “loss of happy life expectancy” indicator and its use in risk comparison after Fukushima disaster2018

    • Author(s)
      Murakami, M., Tsubokura, M., Ono, K., Maeda, M.
    • Journal Title

      Science of The Total Environment

      Volume: 615 Pages: 1527-1534

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.132

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Importance of risk comparison for individual and societal decision-making after the Fukushima disaster2018

    • Author(s)
      Michio Murakami
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Radiation Research

      Volume: 59(S2) Issue: suppl_2 Pages: ii23-ii30

    • DOI

      10.1093/jrr/rrx094

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Annual changes in the Fukushima residents' views on the safety of water and air environments and their associations with the perception of radiation risks2018

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Suzuki, Michio Murakami, Tatsuhiro Nishikiori, Shigeki Harada
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Radiation Research

      Volume: 59(S2) Issue: suppl_2 Pages: ii31-ii39

    • DOI

      10.1093/jrr/rrx096

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Additional risk of diabetes exceeds the increased risk of cancer caused by radiation exposure after the Fukushima disaster2017

    • Author(s)
      Murakami, M., Tsubokura, M., Ono, K., Nomura, S., Oikawa, T.
    • Journal Title

      PLOS ONE

      Volume: 12(9) Issue: 9 Pages: e0185259-e0185259

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0185259

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Systemization of the Establishment of Standards and Future Prospects: Toward the Establishment of Standards in Nonstationary States2017

    • Author(s)
      村上道夫
    • Journal Title

      Nippon Eiseigaku Zasshi (Japanese Journal of Hygiene)

      Volume: 72 Issue: 1 Pages: 32-37

    • DOI

      10.1265/jjh.72.32

    • NAID

      130005306031

    • ISSN
      0021-5082, 1882-6482
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Individual external doses below the lowest reference level of 1 mSv per year five years after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident among all children in Soma City, Fukushima: A retrospective observational study2017

    • Author(s)
      Masaharu Tsubokura , Michio Murakami, Shuhei Nomura, Tomohiro Morita, Yoshitaka Nishikawa, Claire Leppold, Shigeaki Kato, Masahiro Kami
    • Journal Title

      Plos One

      Volume: 12(2) Issue: 2 Pages: e0172305-e0172305

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0172305

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] 福島県民が抱く水環境に対する様々な不安の経年変化とその要因2020

    • Author(s)
      鈴木聡, 村上道夫, 原田茂樹
    • Organizer
      第54回日本水環境学会年会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Health Risks and Values: Support for Evidence- and Norm-Based Decisions2019

    • Author(s)
      Michio Murakami
    • Organizer
      ICRP-QST Symposium on Radiological Protection of People and the Environment in the Event of a Large Nuclear Accident
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 東日本大震災による福島県民の水とのふれあい方の変化とその要因2019

    • Author(s)
      鈴木聡, 村上道夫, 原田茂樹
    • Organizer
      2019年度一般社団法人日本リスク研究学会 第32回年次大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 福島の今と未来:リスク学の挑戦2018

    • Author(s)
      村上道夫
    • Organizer
      2018年度一般社団法人日本リスク研究学会第31回年次大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 福島県民が抱くリスクへの不安の経年変化やその情報源との関連2018

    • Author(s)
      鈴木聡, 村上道夫, 竹林由武, 原田茂樹
    • Organizer
      2018年度一般社団法人日本リスク研究学会第31回年次大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 福島第一原子力発電所事故後のマルチプルリスクの比較2018

    • Author(s)
      村上道夫, 坪倉正治, 小野恭子
    • Organizer
      環境科学会 2018 年会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 福島県民が抱く様々なリスクへの不安の傾向とその要因2018

    • Author(s)
      鈴木聡, 村上道夫, 錦織達啓, Yulia Lyamzina, 原田茂樹
    • Organizer
      第1回福島県環境創造シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 福島県の水環境への安全観の経年変化2017

    • Author(s)
      鈴木聡, 錦織達啓, 村上道夫, 原田茂樹
    • Organizer
      第51回日本水環境学会年会(2016年度)
    • Place of Presentation
      熊本
    • Year and Date
      2017-03-15
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Yearly Changes of Residents’ Safety-view on Water Environments in Fukushima and Their Associations with Radiation Risk Perception2017

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Suzuki, Michio Murakami, Tatsuhiro Nishikiori, and Shigeki Harada
    • Organizer
      The 1st International Symposium of the network-type Joint Usage/Research Center for Radiation Disaster Medical Science
    • Place of Presentation
      Hiroshima
    • Year and Date
      2017-02-21
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 福島県における様々なリスクへの不安と放射線リスク認知との関連2017

    • Author(s)
      鈴木聡, 村上道夫, 錦織達啓, Yulia Lyamzina, 原田茂樹
    • Organizer
      第30回日本リスク研究学会年次大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 福島県における東日本大震災前後の医療及び介護費用の変化2017

    • Author(s)
      長谷川誠, 村上道夫, 竹林由武, 野村周平, 坪倉正治
    • Organizer
      第30回日本リスク研究学会年次大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 主観的幸福度を用いたリスク分析手法の開発2016

    • Author(s)
      村上道夫
    • Organizer
      環境科学会2016年会
    • Place of Presentation
      横浜
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-09
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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