Quantitative study for the natural history of norovirus infection

• Project/Area Number: 16H06581
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Statistical science
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: Matsuyama Ryota 北海道大学, 医学研究院, 博士研究員 (00780008)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-08-26 – 2018-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
• Keywords: 感染症疫学 / ノロウイルス感染症 / 理論疫学 / 感染性 / 感受性 / 不顕性感染 / 感染自然史 / 社会医学 / 数理モデル / ノロウイルス

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Although outbreaks of norovirus infection (NVI) are frequently observed, the natural history of NVI has not been sufficiently understood. The present study aimed to quantify the unknown parameters of NVI transmission, such as the basic reproduction number (R0: the average number of secondary infection from a initial infection) and the infectivity of asymptomatic infection. Those parameters in NVI were analyzed through the comprehensive analysis of multiple NVI outbreak data and the use of mathematical modeling.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Estimating the Asymptomatic Ratio of Norovirus Infection During Foodborne Outbreaks With Laboratory Testing in Japan (2018)
  • Author(s): Miura F, Matsuyama R, Nishiura H
  • Journal Title: Journal of Epidemiology Volume: 28 Issue: 9 Pages: 382-387
  • DOI: 10.2188/jea.JE20170040
  • NAID: 130007481555
  • ISSN: 0917-5040, 1349-9092
  • Year and Date: 2018-09-05
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November-December 2017. (2018)
  • Author(s): Matsuyama R, Akhmetzhanov AR, Endo A, Lee H, Yamaguchi T, Tsuzuki S, Nishiura H
  • Journal Title: PeerJ Volume: － Pages: e4583-e4583
  • DOI: 10.7717/peerj.4583
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The transmissibility of noroviruses: Statistical modeling of outbreak events with known route of transmission in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Matsuyama R, Miura F, Nishiura H
  • Journal Title: PLOS ONE Volume: 12 Issue: 3 Pages: e0173996-e0173996
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173996
  • NAID: 120006219940
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Clinical determinants of the severity of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS): a systematic review and meta-analysis (2016)
  • Author(s): Matsuyama R, Nishiura H, Kutsuna S, Hayakawa K, Ohmagari N
  • Journal Title: BMC Public Health Volume: 16 Issue: 1 Pages: 1203-1203
  • DOI: 10.1186/s12889-016-3881-4
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] Household transmission of acute gastroenteritis with suspected norovirus infection (noro-like illness) (2018)
  • Author(s): Ryota Matsuyama, Fuminari Miura, Shinya Tsuzuki, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: 18th International Congress on Infectious Diseases
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Estimating the transmissibility of norovirus infection using outbreak event data with known route of transmission in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Ryota Matsuyama, Fuminari Miura, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: The 21st International Epidemiological Association World Congress of Epidemiology
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Sample size consideration for influenza transmission experiments using ferret model (2017)
  • Author(s): Ryota Matsuyama, Yusuke Asai, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: Epidemics 6, Sixth International Conference ofInfectious Disease Dynamics
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Exploration of the optimal design for transmission experiments within a fixed sample size (2017)
  • Author(s): Ryota Matsuyama, Yusuke Asai, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: Japan Innovative Mathematical Modeling for the Analysis of Infectious Disease Data: IMAID
• [Presentation] Exploring the cost effectiveness in transmission experiments using ferret model (2017)
  • Author(s): Ryota Matsuyama, Yusuke Asai, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: 27th Annual Meeting of Japanese Society for Medical Biology
• [Presentation] Household transmission of acute viral gastroenteritis with suspected norovirus infection (2017)
  • Author(s): Ryota Matsuyama, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: 第２８回日本疫学会学術総会
• [Presentation] Assessment for the time-dependent variation of the transmissibility of norovirus infection in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Matsuyama R, Nishiura H
  • Organizer: The 27th Annual Scientific Meeting of the Japan Epidemiological Association
  • Place of Presentation: ベルクラシック甲府(山梨県甲府市)
• [Presentation] Statistical modeling for the analysis of the transmissibility of noroviruses using outbreak events data with known route of transmission in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Ryota Matsuyama, Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: 第二回北海道大学部局横断シンポジウム『免疫・癌・感染』
  • Place of Presentation: 北海道大学工学部鈴木章記念ホール(北海道札幌市)
• [Presentation] Time dependent increase in the transmissibility of norovirus infection: Statistical modeling of outbreak event data with known major route of transmission in Japan (2016)
  • Author(s): Matsuyama R, Nishiura H
  • Organizer: Innovative Mathematical Modeling for the Analysis of Infectious Disease Data: IMAID 2016
  • Place of Presentation: 神戸大学滝川メモリアルホール(兵庫県神戸市)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A Meta-Analysis of Risk and Risk Factors related mortality of Middle East Respiratory syndrome (2016)
  • Author(s): Matsuyama R, Nishiura H
  • Organizer: The annual meeting of the Japanese Society for Mathematical Biology 2016
  • Place of Presentation: 九州大学椎木講堂(福岡県福岡市)