| Budget Amount *help |
¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
I continued my research into machine learning, including server maintenance and optimization, learning and using different ML libraries, attending conferences, and exploring the latest papers, tutorials, and industry standards.
Two co-authored papers:
- Tessmer HL, Ito K, and Omori R. Can machines learn respiratory virus epidemiology?: A comparative study of likelihood-free methods for the estimation of epidemiological dynamics.
- Sakon N, Komano J, Tessmer HL, and Omori R. High transmissibility of norovirus among infants and school children during the 2016/17 season in Osaka, Japan.
Abstract: To estimate and predict the transmission dynamics of respiratory viruses, the estimation of the basic reproduction number, R0, is essential. Recently, approximate Bayesian computation methods have been used as likelihood free methods to estimate epidemiological model parameters, particularly R0. In this paper, we explore various machine learning approaches, the multi-layer perceptron, convolutional neural network, and long-short term memory, to learn and estimate the parameters. Further, we compare the accuracy of the estimates and time requirements for machine learning and the approximate Bayesian computation methods on both simulated and real-world epidemiological data from outbreaks of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, mumps, and measles. We find that the machine learning approaches can be verified and tested faster than the approximate Bayesian computation method, but that the approximate Bayesian computation method is more robust across different datasets.
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