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Theory and application of locally stationary time series factor models for large-scale financial data

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K00042
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Statistical science
Research InstitutionNiigata University

Principal Investigator

Hirukawa Junichi  新潟大学, 自然科学系, 准教授 (10386617)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Discontinued (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords時系列解析 / 因子モデル / 局所定常時系列 / 金融工学 / 高次元データ / 局所定常 / 次元縮小 / 単位根過程
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The theory of the locally stationary time series factor models for dimension reduction for large-scale financial data was prepared, and then the statistical asymptotic theory of the finite-dimensional locally stationary time series factor model was established. A simple eigenvalue analysis of a nonnegative definite multiplied covariance matrix was used to give estimators for both the number of factors and the factor loadings. Since many existing methods only examine the consistency of estimators, the results are uniform in the stationary and non-stationary cases. Therefore, we could not judge how non-stationarity affects the estimator. By investigating the asymptotic variance of the estimator, we clarifyiedthe difference in the properties of the proposed estimator under the assumption of the locally stationary time series factor model and under the assumption of the stationary time series factor model.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

今後は,得られた基礎理論を高次元時系列データの次元縮小に応用する。また,金融時系列データの特徴である時間と共に相関構造が滑らかに変化していく様な現象を記述するのに適している局所定常イノベーションを持つ緩やかに爆発する過程の漸近理論を導いた。緩やかに爆発する過程により,バブル期の金融時系列データを記述し,バブル期の始まりと終焉の時期を識別するのに応用した。今後は,大規模金融データに対する局所定常時系列因子モデルをバブル期の前,中,後に,それぞれあてはめることにより,何故バブル期が生まれ,はじけたかの要因を明らかにする。得られた結果を将来のバブル期の予測に応用する。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2019 Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (13 results)

All 2018 2017 2016

All Journal Article (1 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (11 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 9 results,  Invited: 4 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Time series regression models with locally stationary disturbance2017

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Hirukawa
    • Journal Title

      Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 3 Pages: 1-18

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11203-017-9155-7

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Asymptotic Properties of Mildly Explosive Processes with Locally Stationary Disturbance.2018

    • Author(s)
      Hirukawa, J., Lee, S
    • Organizer
      2nd International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics (EcoSta 2018), 於 City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong,
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Asymptotic Properties of Mildly Explosive Processes with Locally Stationary Disturbance.2018

    • Author(s)
      Hirukawa, J., Lee, S
    • Organizer
      Waseda International Symposium ``Introduction of general causality to various data and its innovation of the optimal inference'' 於 早稲田大学基幹理工学部
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Asymptotic Properties of Mildly Explosive Processes with Locally Stationary Disturbance.2018

    • Author(s)
      Hirukawa, J., Lee, S
    • Organizer
      ``International Symposium on Statistical Theory and Methodology for Large Complex Data'' 於 筑波大学
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Asymptotic Properties of Mildly Explosive Processes with Locally Stationary Disturbance.2018

    • Author(s)
      Hirukawa, J., Lee, S
    • Organizer
      科研費シンポジウム「漸近理論、角度または時系列のための統計解析に関する様々な研究」於 南山大学
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Functional central limit theorem for locally stationary processes2017

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Hirukawa
    • Organizer
      海外セミナー講演 於 Department of Statistics, Seoul National University 韓国
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Asymptotic Properties of Mildly Explosive Processes with Locally Stationary Disturbance2017

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Hirukawa, Sangyeol Lee
    • Organizer
      科研費シンポジウム「多様な分野における統計科学の総合的研究 ``Overall study of statistical science in the various fields''」於 コープシティ花園
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Asymptotic Properties of Mildly Explosive Processes with Locally Stationary Disturbance2017

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Hirukawa, Sangyeol Lee
    • Organizer
      Waseda International Symposium ``Recent Developments for Statistical Asymptotic Theory for Time Series & Circular Distributions'' 於 早稲田大学基幹理工学部
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] On the extension of Lo's modified R/S statistics against to locally stationary short-range dependence2016

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Hirukawa, Minehiro Takahashi, Ryota Tanaka
    • Organizer
      9th International Conference of the ERCIM WG on Computational and Methodological Statistics
    • Place of Presentation
      セビリア大学,セビリア,チリ
    • Year and Date
      2016-12-11
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] On the extension of Lo's modified R/S statistics against to locally stationary short-range dependence2016

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Hirukawa, Minehiro Takahashi, Ryota Tanaka
    • Organizer
      Hokkaido International Symposium"Recent Developments of Statistical Theory in Statistical Science"
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学 経済学研究科,北海道札幌市
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-27
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Functional central limit theorem for locally stationary processes2016

    • Author(s)
      Junichi HIRUKAWA
    • Organizer
      チリ,バルパライソ大学,統計学セミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      バルパライソ大学,バルパライソ,チリ
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-20
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Functional central limit theorem for locally stationary processes2016

    • Author(s)
      Junichi HIRUKAWA
    • Organizer
      第90回米沢数学セミナー『可換Banach環と関連分野研究集会』
    • Place of Presentation
      山形大学 百周年記念会館セミナールーム,山形県米沢市
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-02
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Statistical portfolio estimation2017

    • Author(s)
      Masanobu Taniguchi, Hiroshi Shiraishi, Junichi Hirukawa, Hiroko Solvang Kato, Takashi Yamashita
    • Total Pages
      388
    • Publisher
      CRC Press
    • ISBN
      1466505605
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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