| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
To contribute towards the development of a probabilistic earthquake forecasting system in the future, this research project aimed to improve the seismicity model, which is currently considered as a standard one, and propose a new standard model. To model the temporal pattern of earthquake occurrence, a mixture model of a statistical (or empirical) model and a physical one has been constructed. This model exhibits better performance than the current standard model, in particular for swarm-type earthquake sequences. In the modeling of the spatiotemporal pattern of earthquake occurrence, appropriate flexibility was provided to a pre-existing physical model. Consequently, more realistic modeling has been achieved.
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