| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this study, we have developed a nonstationary ETAS model (a point process model) that analyzes seismic swarm data driven by some external forces such as fault pore fluid pressure due to magma and water intrusions. In particular, we proposed a method to predict the activity scale and the end time (duration) of volcanic swarm earthquakes caused by magma intrusion in Izu region, applying the relationship between crustal strain time series data and seismic activity.
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