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Projection of changes in precipitation associated with or without tropical cyclones under a warmer climate

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K00526
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Environmental dynamic analysis
Research InstitutionJapan, Meteorological Research Institute

Principal Investigator

Murata Akihiko  気象庁気象研究所, 応用気象研究部, 室長 (10354474)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,810,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,110,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Keywords地球温暖化 / 台風 / 降水 / 地域気候モデル / 統計分布 / 領域気候モデル / 気候変動 / 気象学
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Future changes in precipitation associated with or without tropical cyclones were analyzed by using model data obtained from simulations of the nonhydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) under the present and a warmer climate (RCP8.5 scenario). It is found that precipitation associated with each tropical cyclone intensifies in the future climate although tropical cyclones approaching Japan decrease. Consequently, total precipitation associated with tropical cyclones does not change. However, frequency of extreme precipitation increases. Analyses using the cumulative distribution function of daily precipitation which is not associated with tropical cyclones reveal that frequency of heavy (light) precipitation decreases (increases) over the Japan Sea side of the northern Japan. In the Pacific side of the western Japan, the cumulative distribution function shifts toward the side of heavy precipitation.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

地球温暖化に伴う降水量変化の予測には不確実性が伴うが、本研究では台風の頻度、進路などによって不確実性が大きくなりがちな台風降水を分離することで、非台風降水の不確実性を低減することを試みた。その結果、台風降水を除くことで日降水量の統計分布の信頼度が高まるという知見が得られ、この手法が予測の不確実性を低減させるための新たな方策となることが期待される。また、台風降水についても高解像度の地域気候モデルによる予測結果を用いたことで、山岳を含む複雑な地形の多い日本列島に対応した、これまでにない時空間的に詳細な解析結果が得られた。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (12 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016 Other

All Journal Article (3 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 3 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] The Development of a Resolution-Independent Tropical Cyclone Detection Scheme for High-Resolution Climate Model Simulations2019

    • Author(s)
      Murata, A., S. I. Watanabe, H. Sasaki, H. Kawase, and M. Nosaka
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 97 Issue: 2 Pages: 519-531

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2019-035

    • NAID

      130007625102

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report 2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Japan with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model2019

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, S., I., A. Murata, H. Sasaki, H. Kawase, and M. Nosaka
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 97 Issue: 4 Pages: 805-820

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2019-045

    • NAID

      130007687333

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report 2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] FUTURE CHANGE IN MAXIMUM POTENTIAL STORM SURGE IN ISE BAY BASED ON DYNAMICAL DIRECT DOWNSCALING EXPERIMENTS2019

    • Author(s)
      吉野純,山本康平,村田昭彦,小林智尚
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)

      Volume: 75 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1189-I_1194

    • DOI

      10.2208/kaigan.75.I_1189

    • NAID

      130007730126

    • ISSN
      1883-8944, 1884-2399
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Assessing uncertainties in precipitation in regional climate model simulations with the influence of tropical cyclones based on statistical distributions2019

    • Author(s)
      Murata, A., S. I. Watanabe, H. Sasaki, H. Kawase, and M. Nosaka
    • Organizer
      The 27th International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 地域気候モデルによる予測結果から得られた日降水量の統計分布パラメーターの将来変化2019

    • Author(s)
      村田昭彦, 渡邉俊一, 佐々木秀孝, 川瀬宏明, 野坂真也
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 伊勢湾における可能最大高潮の直接ダウンスケーリング実験2019

    • Author(s)
      吉野純, 山本康平, 小林智尚, 村田昭彦
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 地域気候モデルを用いた台風及び非台風降水の将来変化予測(その4) - 非台風降水の統計分布 -2018

    • Author(s)
      村田昭彦, 渡邉俊一, 佐々木秀孝, 川瀬宏明, 野坂真也
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 地域気候モデルを用いた台風及び非台風降水の将来変化予測 (その1)- 解像度依存性の小さい台風抽出手法の開発 -2017

    • Author(s)
      村田昭彦, 渡邉俊一, 佐々木秀孝, 川瀬宏明, 野坂真也
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 地域気候モデルを用いた台風及び非降水の将来変化予測(その2)- 現在気候再実験における台風降水の検証 -2017

    • Author(s)
      渡邉俊一, 村田昭彦, 佐々木秀孝, 川瀬宏明, 野坂真也
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 雲解像地域気候モデルによる日本の降水量の再現性2016

    • Author(s)
      村田昭彦, 佐々木秀孝, 川瀬宏明, 野坂真也, 青栁曉典, 大泉三津夫
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 台風Yancy(T9313)の初期発達過程の解析(続)-啓風丸Ⅰレーダー観測と数値実験結果を用いてー2016

    • Author(s)
      森一正, 村田昭彦, 竹内仁
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 気象研究所ホームページ

    • URL

      http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Member/ap/komurataakihiko.html

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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