| Project/Area Number |
16K01165
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Sociology/History of science and technology
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| Research Institution | Health Sciences University of Hokkaido |
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Principal Investigator |
Ryota Morimoto 北海道医療大学, リハビリテーション科学部, 准教授 (70648500)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
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| Keywords | 科学哲学 / 統計学の哲学 / ランダム化比較実験 / ベイジアンネットワーク / 因果 / 科学哲学・科学基礎論 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This research aims to clarify the meaning of causal inferences in science from philosophical point of view. There are two major causal inferences in statistics; randomization design and Bayesian network analysis. I analyze the logical structures and the concept of causation in these methods. I also investigate how the founders of them, Ronald Fisher and Sewall Wright, thought about science and causation.
The following is the result of my research. In randomization desgin of experiments, statistical independence which is one of the significanct propery of randomization excludes confounding variables that cannot be held constant. On the other hand, in Bayesian network analysis, strong ignoability which is a weaker requirement than randomaization makes us to estimate causal variables and strong ignoability satisfies when variables are statistical independent.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
因果関係を特定することは科学の目標の１つであり、実際の科学で利用されている因果推定の哲学的意義を明らかにすることは、哲学のみならず科学においても重要な課題である。本研究は、哲学で伝統的におこなわれてきた因果概念の分析の成果を踏まえ、現代科学において利用されている因果推定の方法を具体的に究明するものである。それにより、科学で実際に用いられる因果概念の分析という哲学的成果だけでなく、科学の主要な目標を定めるという科学者にとっても有益な成果が期待できる。
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