| Project/Area Number |
16K01217
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Geography
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| Research Institution | Shinshu University |
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Principal Investigator |
MIZUTANI Mizuki 信州大学, 教育学部, 助教(特定雇用) (20630354)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
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| Keywords | ミズナラ / コナラ / ツキノワグマ / 豊凶 / マスティング / フェノロジー / クマ大量出没 / 野生動物管理 / 大量出没 / マイマイガ / 林学 / 植物 / 生態学 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We investigated methods for predicting the acorn crops of Quercus crispula and Q. serrata using meteorological factors, with the aim of forecasting the probability of the mass intrusion of bears into residential areas. Analysis using a generalized linear mixed model showed that a combination of measurements of the acorn crops of the previous year, the weather factors of the previous summer, and that of the current spring and summer affect the acorn crops of a given year. The prediction model performed better for Q. crispula than for Q. serrata. Analysis using regression tree models focused on veto cues suggested that Q. crispula produced poor crops over a wide area in years which experienced mass intrusions in central Japan. These findings suggest that poor crops of Q. crispula over a wide area, such as those that occurred in mass-intrusion years, can be predicted from meteorological factors before the current summer, prior to field monitoring surveys.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本課題の目的は，クマ出没予測技術を高度化することである。2004年に発生した大規模なクマ大量出没を契機として，各地の自治体はクマ大量出没の予測を目的としたブナ科樹木の豊凶モニタリング調査を行ってきた。現在では秋期に，クマ出没傾向を予測できるようになりつつあるが，さらなる人身被害の軽減に向けて，より早期の豊凶予測技術の確立が期待されている。本課題により，クマ出没に影響するミズナラの豊凶を，実際の調査よりも早い段階で，気象要因を用いて予測できることが示された。これにより，クマ大量出没の発生をより早く予測できるようになることが期待される。
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