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Mechanism of stock market destabilization by interaction of market participants with different time horizons

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K01259
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Social systems engineering/Safety system
Research InstitutionSeijo University

Principal Investigator

Maskawa Jun-ichi  成城大学, 経済学部, 教授 (30199690)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 黒田 耕嗣  日本大学, 文理学部, 教授 (50153416)
Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords株式市場 / マルチフラクタル / 確率過程 / 金融時系列 / マルコフ過程 / Random cascade model / 動的リスク指標
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Multiplicative random cascade model naturally reproduces the intermittency or multifractality, which is frequently shown among hierarchical complex systems such as turbulence and financial markets. We investigate the validity of a multiplicative hierarchical random cascade model (W-cascade model) through an empirical study using financial data. (1) We have extended the multiplicative model to incorporate an additional stochastic term. Results show that the proposed model is consistent with the relevant empirical results. (2) We have proposed a novel continuous cascade model of volatility formulated as a stochastic differential equation. The results reproduced the pdf of the empirical volatility, the multifractality of the time series, and other empirical facts. (3) We have constructed a log-volatility process for Multifractal Random Walk and consider an exogenous shock and the relaxation process of the volatility.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、株式市場を異なる取引時間スケールを持つ複数の投資主体の集合とみなし,それらの投資主体の相互作用の結果として生じる非線形性に着目した研究である。成果として実証研究の結果と整合的な数理モデルを構築した。この研究により、あらたな市場の動的リスク指標を提案すること、それに加え、暴騰暴落の予兆を検知、抑止し、安定な市場を実現するための施策、制度を立案する上での実証的な基盤が確立できる。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (11 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016

All Journal Article (3 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 3 results,  Open Access: 1 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results)

  • [Journal Article] Multiplicative random cascades with additional stochastic process in financial markets2018

    • Author(s)
      Maskawa, J., Kuroda, K. & Murai
    • Journal Title

      J. Evolut Inst Econ Rev

      Volume: 15 Issue: 2 Pages: 515-529

    • DOI

      10.1007/s40844-018-0112-y

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Exogenous shock and multifractal random walk2018

    • Author(s)
      Kuroda, K. & Maskawa
    • Journal Title

      J. Evolut Inst Econ Rev

      Volume: First Online: Issue: 1 Pages: 1-26

    • DOI

      10.1007/s40844-018-0106-9

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Collective Behavior of Market Participants during Abrupt Stock Price Changes2016

    • Author(s)
      Jun-ichi Maskawa
    • Journal Title

      PLoS ONE

      Volume: 11(8) Issue: 8 Pages: e0160152-e0160152

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0160152

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] 株式市場における時間スケール軸のマルコフ過程2019

    • Author(s)
      増川純一、黒田耕嗣、村井浄信
    • Organizer
      日本物理学会年次大会 2019
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Collective behavior in market participants with different time horizons2018

    • Author(s)
      Maskawa, J., Kuroda, K. & Murai
    • Organizer
      The 23rd Annual Workshop on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Multiplicative random cascades with additional stochastic process in financial markets2018

    • Author(s)
      Maskawa, J., Kuroda, K. & Murai
    • Organizer
      Asia-Pacific Econophysics Conference 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 株式市場におけるマルチフラクタル性のランダム・カスケードモデルによる実証研究2018

    • Author(s)
      増川純一、黒田耕嗣、村井浄信
    • Organizer
      日本物理学会第73回年次大会 2018
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 金融時系列における異なる時間スケール間の相互作用2017

    • Author(s)
      増川純一
    • Organizer
      日本物理学会年次大会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学豊中キャンパス
    • Year and Date
      2017-03-17
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Empirical study on random cascades among different time horizons in stock markets2017

    • Author(s)
      Jun-ichi Maskawa, Koji Kuroda, Joshin Murai
    • Organizer
      13TH ECONOPHYSICS COLLOQUIUM & 9TH POLISH SYMPOSIUM ON PHYSICS IN ECONOMY AND SOCIAL SCIENCES
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 株式市場におけるマルチフラクタル性のランダム・カスケードモデルによる実証研究2017

    • Author(s)
      増川純一、黒田耕嗣、村井浄信
    • Organizer
      京都大学基礎物理学研究所研究会経済物理学 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Collective behavior in market participants with different time horizons2016

    • Author(s)
      Jun-ichi Maskawa, Koji Kuroda and Joshin Murai
    • Organizer
      ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOPHYSICS CONFERENCE 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo University
    • Year and Date
      2016-08-24
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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