Study of the Evaluation method of PoF and risks from the monitoring data using Bayesian estimation
| Project/Area Number |
16K01284
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Social systems engineering/Safety system
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| Research Institution | Gunma University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Research Collaborator |
Sanyoshi Yoshinori
Uejima Kiyomasa
Kawakata Kouhei
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
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| Keywords | リスクベースメンテナンス / 構造信頼性 / 破損確率評価 / モニタリング / ベイズ推定 / リスク / 損傷評価 / 破損確率 / ベイズ / リスク評価 / ベイズ統計 / 構造ヘルスモニタリング / 深層学習 / 機械材料・材料力学 / 解析・評価 / 信頼性工学 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this research, as a reliability evaluation method at the time of structural condition evaluation by monitoring, a quantitative evaluation method of probability of failure(PoF) and engineering risk in consideration of the evaluation error was proposed. Also, the effectiveness of the method was clarified. Moreover, the versatility of the method was clarified by applying it to several damage evaluation problems.
In the proposed method, the true damage size distribution is estimated from the evaluation result by Bayesian estimation, and the PoF is quantitatively evaluated. In this study, the proposed risk evaluation method was used, and the damage identification method for improving the reliability rather than the damage estimation accuracy was examined. In order to reduce the risk, it was clarified that the evaluation accuracy for damage smaller than the expected size is important and that risk reduction is possible by giving priority to the evaluation accuracy of the area.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
研究成果は，CBM手法としてモニタリングによる構造状態評価を実施した際の，信頼性定量評価手法の提案と実証である．多くの社会資本構造やプラントでは，TBMによる保全が実施されているが，CBM実施により効率的な保全への切り替えが可能な部位が多数考えられる．しかし，モニタリング実施の定量的な信頼性評価モデルが確立されておらず，これが部分導入への妨げとなっている．提案手法はモニタリング結果からの定量的な信頼性評価を可能とする．TBM, CBMを混在させた同一指標による信頼性評価，すなわち両者を混在させた保全計画立案を可能とし，RBM等による保全意思決定の合理化の推進の原動力となることが期待される．
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(10 results)
