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Validity and usefulness of prospect theory with an application to the effects of earthquake risk on Japanese land prices

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K03565
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Economic theory
Research InstitutionUniversity of Tsukuba (2017-2019)
Yamanashi Gakuin University (2016)

Principal Investigator

Ikefuji Masako  筑波大学, 人文社会系, 准教授 (60452380)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywordsヘドニック・アプローチ / 地震リスク / 確率加重関数 / プロスペクト理論 / リスクプレミアム / 経済理論
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The present study analyzes the impact of short-run and long-run earthquake risk on Japanese property prices considering property characteristics, ward attractiveness information, macroeconomic variables. The results are as follows: (1) long-run earthquake probabilities negatively impact property prices and increasingly so at higher risk levels. (2) distorted short-run associated with the probability weighting function and long-run earthquake probabilities have a significantly negative impact on property prices.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の成果により、高い長期地震確率が住宅価格に負の影響を与え、かつ余震などで高まった短期地震確率に対して個人は過大評価し、低い短期地震確率を過小評価することが明らかになった。大震災による被害評価や減災のためのインフラ整備など大規模なプロジェクトの政策評価のためには、個人の経済活動を集計した市場に、実験で観察されるプロスペクト理論仮説がどの程度反映されているかの検証が必要であり、本研究の成果は重要な示唆を与えると考える。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (7 results)

All 2019 2018 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (4 results) Presentation (3 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] アムステルダム大学/アムステルダム自由大学/ティンバーゲン研究所(オランダ)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] アムステルダム大学/アムステルダム自由大学/ティンバーゲン研究所(オランダ)

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] アムステルダム大学/アムステルダム自由大学(オランダ)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] アムステルダム大学/アムステルダム自由大学(オランダ)

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Earthquake risk embedded in property prices: Evidence from five Japanese cities2019

    • Author(s)
      生藤 昌子
    • Organizer
      住宅経済研究会(公益財団法人 日本住宅総合センター)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report 2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Earthquake risk embedded in property prices: Evidence from five Japanese cities2019

    • Author(s)
      生藤 昌子
    • Organizer
      research seminar of the Wegener Center for Global and Climate Change, University of Graz
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Earthquake risk embedded in property prices: Evidence from five Japanese cities2018

    • Author(s)
      Yuan Yue
    • Organizer
      Econometric Society Australasian Meeting 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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