Validity and usefulness of prospect theory with an application to the effects of earthquake risk on Japanese land prices
| Project/Area Number |
16K03565
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic theory
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| Research Institution | University of Tsukuba (2017-2019)
Yamanashi Gakuin University (2016) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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| Keywords | ヘドニック・アプローチ / 地震リスク / 確率加重関数 / プロスペクト理論 / リスクプレミアム / 経済理論 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The present study analyzes the impact of short-run and long-run earthquake risk on Japanese property prices considering property characteristics, ward attractiveness information, macroeconomic variables. The results are as follows: (1) long-run earthquake probabilities negatively impact property prices and increasingly so at higher risk levels. (2) distorted short-run associated with the probability weighting function and long-run earthquake probabilities have a significantly negative impact on property prices.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究の成果により、高い長期地震確率が住宅価格に負の影響を与え、かつ余震などで高まった短期地震確率に対して個人は過大評価し、低い短期地震確率を過小評価することが明らかになった。大震災による被害評価や減災のためのインフラ整備など大規模なプロジェクトの政策評価のためには、個人の経済活動を集計した市場に、実験で観察されるプロスペクト理論仮説がどの程度反映されているかの検証が必要であり、本研究の成果は重要な示唆を与えると考える。
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(7 results)
