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Theoretical and empirical analysis of electoral systems and political behavior: Campaign strategy on manifestos

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K03708
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Public finance/Public economy
Research InstitutionChuo University

Principal Investigator

Eguchi Kyota  中央大学, 商学部, 教授 (50302675)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Keywords小選挙区制 / 衆議院 / 参議院 / 選挙公報 / 東京都選挙区 / DD推計 / 選挙 / 中選挙区 / 小選挙区 / 候補者本位の選挙運動 / 差の差推定 / 戦略的行動 / 東京都
Outline of Final Research Achievements

I examine with manifestos "senkyo-koho" how the 1994 transition from multi-member districts (MMD) to single-member districts (SMD) influenced name-promotion strategies among candidates in Japanese national elections from 1977 to 2014. It was expected theoretically that the transition attenuated the individual-oriented campaign but promoted the party-oriented one, suggesting that candidates were discouraged from promoting themselves. Actually, name promotion was less evident among candidates for the House of Representatives following the transition, suggesting it attenuated individual-oriented campaigns. Candidates for the House of Councillors, however, engaged in less name promotion than candidates for the House of Representatives. I have shown with the difference-in-differences (DD) methodology that the transition from MMD to SMD might have encouraged candidates to promote themselves. Results suggest that the individual-oriented campaign has been more valid than previously thought.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

1996年の第41回衆議院議員選挙から小選挙区制が導入されて20年以上たち、日本の政治は大きく変容したと言われている。小選挙区制への移行後、政治家は党の公認をとる必要性が高まり、政党執行部の主導性を強めることになったと言われている。この通説自体は必ずしも間違いとは言えないが、定量的な分析によって根拠づけられたものではなく、小選挙区制へ移行してかなりの時間がたつものの、定量的な分析は未だ不十分である。本研究の意義は、「選挙公報」の情報の変化に注目してデータベースを作成したことと、先行研究に比べてち密な計量分析を行い、選挙による政党主導が理論が想定するよりも進んでいないことを示したことにある。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2020-03-30  

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