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Movements in External Assets/Liability: Structural Factors and Effects on the World Economy

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K03735
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Money/ Finance
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

Ueda Kenichi  東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 准教授 (40750807)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Keywordsグローバル・インバランス / 対外資産 / 工業化 / 産業革命 / ルーカス・パラドックス / Global Imbalance / Industrial Revolution / External Wealth / Capital Flows / 国際金融論
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Japan, China, Germany, and some other countries obtain too large current account surpluses and accumulate too big external assets to be explained by a usual economic theory. This global imbalance has been hotly debated internationally. Ueda and Hattori (2018, 2019) summarized the debate primarily based on existing literature and analyses by the International Monetary Fund.
Monge-Naranjo and Ueda (2017) proposed a new theory to justify the global imbalance. Specifically, they proposed an international macroeconomic model in which fast-industrializing countries accumulate their external assets rapidly under the hard currency constraint. This theory turns out complex and makes further analysis or simulation study difficult. Still, we keep working on it further as the next step.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

学術的には、これまでの理論では、世界の工場と呼ばれる国には、各国から投資が集まるはずであり、対外負債を持つという結論になる。しかし、現実には、日本、中国やドイツなどは対外資産を蓄えている。それに対し、我々の研究は、理論的にどのような条件の下でそうなるかを初めて明らかにした。
社会的には、世界金融危機以来、米国や南欧など恒常的な対外債務国から不満が大きくなり、直近はさらにエスカレートし、黒字国が何か悪いことをしていると考え、国際経済取引の障壁が高まってきている。こうした中、現状の世界的な対外資産の偏在が実は理論的におかしいことではないことを示すことで、理知的な政策議論を促すことができる。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (12 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (4 results) Journal Article (3 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (5 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Invited: 1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Washington University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Washington University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Washington University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Washington University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] グローバル・インバランスと IMF による対外バランス評価(EBA)モデルについて2019

    • Author(s)
      植田健一、服部孝洋
    • Journal Title

      PRI Discussion Paper

      Volume: 19A-06 Pages: 1-34

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] IMFによる対外不均衡の評価 について2018

    • Author(s)
      植田健一、服部孝洋
    • Journal Title

      ファイナンス

      Volume: 6月 Pages: 66-73

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Industrial Revolutions and Global Imbalances2017

    • Author(s)
      Alexander Monge-Naranjo and Kenichi Ueda
    • Journal Title

      RIETI Discussion Paper

      Volume: 17-E-067 Pages: 1-22

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Industrial Revolutions and Global Imbalances2019

    • Author(s)
      Alexander Monge-Naranjo and Kenichi Ueda
    • Organizer
      ABFER 7th Annual Conference
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Industrial Revolutions and Global Imbalances2019

    • Author(s)
      Alexander Monge-Naranjo
    • Organizer
      FRB St. Louis Seminar
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Industrial Revolutions and Global Imbalances2019

    • Author(s)
      Kenichi Ueda
    • Organizer
      Tokyo Workshop on International and Development Economics
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Industrial Revolutions and Global Imbalances2018

    • Author(s)
      Kenichi Ueda
    • Organizer
      RIETI Conference on Long-term Growth and Secular Stagnation
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Industrial Revolutions and Global Imbalances2017

    • Author(s)
      Kenichi Ueda
    • Organizer
      4th annual International Conference on New Structural Economics at Peking University
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2022-02-21  

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