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Emotion and Financial Markets: Regret, Asset Price, and Market Efficiency

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K03758
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Money/ Finance
Research InstitutionRitsumeikan University

Principal Investigator

Qin Jie  立命館大学, 経済学部, 教授 (40329751)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Keywords後悔 / 後悔回避 / 投資家感情 / 資産価格評価 / 投資家行動 / 証券投資 / 証券価格 / 情報効率性 / 後悔理論 / 感情 / 非効率的市場 / 市場効率性 / 資産価格 / 意思決定 / リスク / premium puzzle / flat SML / 均衡価格 / 神経経済学 / 行動ファイナンス / 証券市場
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Based on the stylized facts that regret has strong influence on decision making, this research builds a regret-based capital asset pricing model. In the model, investors maximize the expected returns from chosen portfolios of assets while minimizing anticipated regrets. To analyze portfolio selection problems under risk aversion, a new “regret function” is developed. In equilibrium, a closed-form pricing formula is derived. By using “regret premium” and “regret beta”, this research illustrates the effects of regret on asset prices explicitly. The model is further extended to the situation where investors have both regret aversion and risk aversion. A two-beta asset pricing formula is derived where expected return is a linear function of regret beta and market beta. This regret-based capital asset pricing model implies that regret aversion is a possible reason for the flat security market line and high equity premium. Regret aversion can also reduce market efficiency.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

後悔などの感情が意思決定に強い影響を与える。本研究は後悔回避を資本資産価格評価モデル(CAPM)に導入して、現代ファイナンス理論の基礎を成す資産価格評価理論を拡張した。本研究が構築したモデルは、後悔が証券市場に与える影響を数量的に分析するための理論的フレームワークを提供すると同時に、検証可能なインプリケーションも提示した。新しい後悔関数の考案、閉式解の導出も重要な理論的貢献である。現実の証券市場で観察される「平坦な証券市場線」や「プレミアム・パズル」などのアノマリーの説明にも寄与する。

Report

(8 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (14 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016

All Journal Article (6 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (8 results) (of which Invited: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Counterfactual Thinking, Trading, and Market Inefficiency2022

    • Author(s)
      Jie Qin
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Behavioral Economics and Finance

      Volume: 15 Issue: Special_issue Pages: S9-S13

    • DOI

      10.11167/jbef.15.S9

    • ISSN
      2185-3568
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 後悔理論と資産価格評価モデル2021

    • Author(s)
      秦劼
    • Journal Title

      立命館食科学研究

      Volume: 5 Pages: 103-113

    • NAID

      120007046301

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Regret-based capital asset pricing model2020

    • Author(s)
      Qin Jie
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Banking & Finance

      Volume: 114 Pages: 105784-105784

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105784

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 感情,リスクと意思決定:後悔がHIV 予防行動に与える影響を中心に2020

    • Author(s)
      秦劼、森岡優紀
    • Journal Title

      立命館経済学

      Volume: 69 Pages: 29-40

    • NAID

      40022390724

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Regret-Based Capital Asset Pricing Model2018

    • Author(s)
      Jie Qin
    • Journal Title

      SSRN

      Volume: 3089538 Pages: 1-20

    • DOI

      10.2139/ssrn.3089538

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Regret-CAPM: A Model of Regret and Asset Pricing2017

    • Author(s)
      Jie Qin
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Behavioral Economics and Finance

      Volume: 10 Special Issue Pages: 1-4

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Counterfactual Thinking, Trading, and Market Inefficiency2022

    • Author(s)
      秦劼
    • Organizer
      行動経済学会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Regret-based Capital Asset Pricing Model2019

    • Author(s)
      Jie Qin
    • Organizer
      日本ファイナンス学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Regret-based Asset Pricing Model2019

    • Author(s)
      秦 劼
    • Organizer
      早稲田大学商学部 産研講演会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Regret-CAPM: A Model of Regret and Asset Pricing2018

    • Author(s)
      JIE QIN
    • Organizer
      MEW
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Regret-CAPM: A Model of Regret and Asset Pricing2018

    • Author(s)
      JIE QIN
    • Organizer
      フィールド実験勉強会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Regret-CAPM: A Model of Regret and Asset Pricing2017

    • Author(s)
      JIE QIN
    • Organizer
      行動経済学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Regret-CAPM: A Model of Regret and Asset Pricing2017

    • Author(s)
      JIE QIN
    • Organizer
      資産価格研究会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Regret Aversion, Investor Behavior, and Market Turbulence2016

    • Author(s)
      Jie Qin
    • Organizer
      Fudan University School of Management Seminar
    • Place of Presentation
      Fudan University, China
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-13
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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