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Empirical and Theoretical Studies on Non-performing Loans and Housing Bubbles in Japan, the U.S., and China

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K03764
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Money/ Finance
Research InstitutionFukuoka University

Principal Investigator

WAN Junmin  福岡大学, 経済学部, 教授 (40423123)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2021-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Keywords投機的貯蓄 / バブル・プレミアム / 過剰投資 / 過少投資 / 不良債権 / 米中貿易戦争 / バブル予防 / ソフト・ランディング / 過剰貯蓄 / 過小貯蓄 / バブル / 基軸通貨 / Bubble Premium / Bubble / Speculation / Lease Hold / Free Hold / Non-performing Loans / Branch Deregulation / Bank / 不動産 / 投機 / 税 / 銀行 / 中国 / 計量分析 / ビットコイン / 南海バブル / ソフトランディング / 不動産バブル / バブルテスト / 不動産購買禁止令 / 過剰融資 / 銀行個票パネル / 産業別不良債権 / 日米中
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study empirically examined the occurrence of non-performing loans and housing bubbles using macro data and micro data from Japan, the U.S., and China, and theoretically proposed policies to prevent their recurrence. It is clarified that the housing bubble has not only triggered the domestic problem of speculative savings by households, overinvestment in housing sectors and underinvestments in the left sectors as well as non-performing loans in banking sector, but also accelerated the imbalance of the US-China balance which has triggered the ongoing US-China trade war as spillover of domestic issues. Furthermore, by newly presenting and formulating the technical term ``bubble premium,'' the author has discovered a mechanism that enables prevention of bubble occurrence and soft landing of existing bubble, and stable and efficient operation of the market economy

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

学術的意義:バブル・プレミアムを定式化したことによって、リスク中立的なエージェントが合理的バブルの取引に参加することをモデルで記述することが可能となり、その均衡経路の性質を吟味することが可能となった。家計・非金融企業・銀行は、バブル・プレミアムを求めるインセンティブに基づいて投機的取引に走る。過度な投機は、市場経済の効率性と安定性を損なうので適度な制限が求められる。
社会的意義:今までの経済学や政策議論では、投機的取引に関して流動性を増すようなメリットは強調されてきたが、そのデメリットはそれほど知られていない。この研究によって投機的取引による弊害に対する社会的認知が深まると期待される。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2020 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (75 results)

All 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Other

All Journal Article (19 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 8 results,  Open Access: 2 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (53 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 15 results,  Invited: 11 results) Remarks (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Depreciation Rate by Industrial Sector and Profit after Tax in China2021

    • Author(s)
      Wan, Junmin and Qiu, Qiqi
    • Journal Title

      The Chinese Economy

      Volume: - Issue: 2 Pages: 111-128

    • DOI

      10.1080/10971475.2021.1930297

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Corporate Saving, Household Saving, and Gross National Savings: Analysis by Provincial Panel and Time Series Data in China2021

    • Author(s)
      Wan, Junmin
    • Journal Title

      The Chinese Economy

      Volume: - Issue: 1 Pages: 1-12

    • DOI

      10.1080/10971475.2021.1892918

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The Lottery Receipt2021

    • Author(s)
      Wan, Junmin
    • Journal Title

      International Review of Economics and Finance

      Volume: 71 Pages: 733-755

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.iref.2020.09.018

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] US-China Trade War: Speculative Saving Perspective2021

    • Author(s)
      Wan, Junmin
    • Journal Title

      The Chinese Economy

      Volume: 54 Issue: 2 Pages: 107-123

    • DOI

      10.1080/10971475.2020.1830230

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Synchronized job transfer and task-specific human capital2020

    • Author(s)
      Katsuya Takii, Masaru Sasaki, Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: 56 Pages: 1-19

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jjie.2020.101075

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report 2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] The Impact of Housing Bubbles on Industrial Investments in China2020

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan and Qiqi Qiu
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper Series, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2020-06 Pages: 1-61

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Corporate Saving, Household Saving, and Gross National Savings: Analysis by Provincial Panel and Time Series Data in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper Series, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-017 Pages: 1-36

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper Series, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-016 Pages: 1-40

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 中国部門別貯蓄1952-20182019

    • Author(s)
      万軍民
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-015 Pages: 1-35

    • NAID

      40022437487

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] ``US-China Trade War'' Viewed from Speculative Saving2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-014 Pages: 1-56

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Depreciation Rate by Perpetual Inventory Method and Depreciation Expense as Accounting Item2019

    • Author(s)
      Qiqi Qiu and Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-012 Pages: 1-31

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Economic Experience and Lesson from Tokyo Bay Area: Industrial Agglomeration, Congestion, and Land Bubble2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-010 Pages: 1-21

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Investments in Service Sectors and Housing Prices in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan and Junren Yin
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-004 Pages: 1-36

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Depreciation Rate by Industrial Sector in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Qiqi Qiu and Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-003 Pages: 1-32

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Restriction of Speculation and Housing Market in Changsha2019

    • Author(s)
      Zhaoxin Niu and Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2019-002 Pages: 1-31

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Prevention and Landing of Bubble2018

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      International Review of Economics and Finance

      Volume: 56 Pages: 190-204

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.iref.2017.10.024

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report 2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Non-performing Loans and Housing Prices in China2018

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      International Review of Economics and Finance

      Volume: 57 Pages: 26-42

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.iref.2018.02.011

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report 2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Bubble Premium, Bubble Prevention, and Bubble Landing2017

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      CAES Working Paper Series WP-2017-006, Center for Advanced Economic Study, Fukuoka University

      Volume: 2017 Pages: 1-47

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Non-performing Loans and Housing Prices in China2017

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Journal Title

      International Review of Economics and Finance (条件付採択)

      Volume: 未定

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Inbound Demand in Fear of Pandemic Disease: Consumption with Inventories Perspective2021

    • Author(s)
      Wan, Junmin
    • Organizer
      日本応用経済学会西日本支部大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2020

    • Author(s)
      Wan, Junmin
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2020年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Impact of Housing Bubbles on Industrial Investments in China2020

    • Author(s)
      Wan, Junmin
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2020年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2020

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      2020 Spring Meeting of Japanese Economic Association
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Industrial Investments and Housing Prices in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      The 6th International Conference on The Chinese Economy: Past, Present and Future
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Taxation and Bubble2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Seminar, School of Taxation, Central University of Economics and Finance
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Depreciate Rate by Industrial Sector in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      2019 Autumn Meeting of Japanese Economic Association
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Economic Experience and Lesson from Tokyo Bay Area: Industrial Agglomerations, Congestion, and Land Bubble2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      UK, Coventry University, Business School, Seminar
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Depreciation Rate by Perpetual Inventory Method and Depreciation Expense as Accounting Item2019

    • Author(s)
      Qiqi Qiu and Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Asia-Pacific Economic Association
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Industrial Investments and Housing Prices in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Qiqi Qiu and Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Asia-Pacific Economic Association
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Economic Experience and Lesson from Tokyo Bay Area: Industrial Agglomerations, Congestion, and Land Bubble2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      UK, University of Edinburgh, Business School, Seminar
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Industrial Investments and Housing Prices in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      2019 Spring Meeting of Japanese Economic Association
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Effective Life and Value of Capital2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Economics and Management Advanced Forum, Wuhan University of Technology
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Economic Experience and Lesson from Tokyo Bay Area: Industrial Agglomerations, Congestion, and Land Bubble2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      International Conference Greater Bay Area (Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau): Global Business, Technology and Cultural Perspectives
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Depreciation Rate and Market Value Implied by Book Value of Capital Stock2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Center for Advanced Economic Study, Fukuoka University
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Workshop of Economics in Fukuoka
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      The 1st Workshop of Keio and Fukuoka University
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Industrial Investments and Housing Prices in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Qiqi Qiu and Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      1st Workshop of Keio and Fukuoka University
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Effective Life and Value of Capital2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Workshop of Professor Kazuo Ogawa's Research Seminar
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Industrial Investments and Housing Prices in China2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Workshop of Professor Kazuo Ogawa's Research Seminar
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Bubble Occurrence and Landing2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Seminar at Chu Hai College of Higher Education, Hong Kong
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Bubble Occurrence and Landing2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Seminar, School of International Finance, Sun Yat-sen University
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Bubble Occurrence and Landing2019

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Seminar, School of International Finance, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Bubble Occurrence and Landing2018

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Asia-Pacific Economic Association, 2018 Annual Conference, University of Southern California, LA, U.S.
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Overinvestments and Housing Bubbles in China2018

    • Author(s)
      Qiqi Qiu and Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Economic Modelling Special Issue Conference on “Applied Finance, Macroeconomic Performance, and Economic Growth
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Bubble Occurrence and Landing2018

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Nonperforming Loans and Branch Deregulation2018

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Bubble Premium and Bubble Occurrence2018

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Kyushu University, Research Meeting
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Bubble Premium and Bubble Occurrence2018

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Kansai University, Research Meeting
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Bubble Premium and Bubble Occurrence2018

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Workshop of household economics, ISER, Osaka University
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Speculative Saving2018

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Workshop of household economics, ISER, Osaka University
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Bubble Premium, Bubble Prevention, and Bubble Landing2018

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Seminar talk at Mingchuan University, Taipei
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Speculative Saving2017

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      The 4th International Conference on The Chinese Economy: Past, Present and Future
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Bubble Premium, Bubble Prevention, and Bubble Landing2017

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Seminar, Peking University
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Non-performing Loans and Housing Prices in China2017

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      The 73rd Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Non-Performing Loans and Housing Prices in China2017

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      2017 Asian Meeting of Econometric Society
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Housing Prices, Savings, and Economic Growth2017

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Seminar, Peking University
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Housing Prices, Savings, and Economic Growth2017

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      Seminar, Fudan University
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 爆買いの経済学2017

    • Author(s)
      万軍民
    • Organizer
      北九州市立大学
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Prevention and Landing of Bubble2017

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2017年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A Theory of Consumption with Inventories2017

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2017年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A Theory of Consumption with Inventories2017

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      2017日本応用経済学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 不動産価格、貯蓄および経済成長2017

    • Author(s)
      万軍民
    • Organizer
      北京大学中国社会科学調査センターセミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      北京大学中国社会科学調査センター
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 不動産価格、貯蓄および経済成長2017

    • Author(s)
      万軍民
    • Organizer
      復旦大学国際関係と公共事務学院セミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      中国上海市、復旦大学国際関係と公共事務学院
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Non-performing Loans in Housing Bubbles2016

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      「公民財産と財政国家」学術会議
    • Place of Presentation
      中国、上海市、復旦大学国際関係と公共事務学院、上海復宣酒店
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-05
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Speculative Saving Hypothesis2016

    • Author(s)
      万軍民
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2016年秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      早稲田大学
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-10
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Lottery Receipt2016

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      The 72th Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance
    • Place of Presentation
      Tahoe B. Harrahs, Lake Tahoe, Reno, Neveda, USA
    • Year and Date
      2016-08-09
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Non-performing Loans in Housing Bubbles2016

    • Author(s)
      万軍民
    • Organizer
      日本応用経済学会2016春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      広島大学
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-25
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Non-performing Loans in Housing Bubbles2016

    • Author(s)
      Junmin Wan
    • Organizer
      The 3rd Inrternational Conference on The Chinese Economy: Past, Present and Future
    • Place of Presentation
      中国北京市、清華大学、Tsinghua Unisplendour International Center
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Non-performing Loans in Housing Bubbles2016

    • Author(s)
      万軍民
    • Organizer
      立命館大学経済学部Economic Research Seminar
    • Place of Presentation
      立命館大学琵琶湖キャンパス
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 不動産バブル中の不良債権2016

    • Author(s)
      万軍民
    • Organizer
      南昌大学公共管理学院セミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      中国南昌市、南昌大学北区図書館報告ホール
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 営業税の付加価値税への切替とくじ付領収書2016

    • Author(s)
      万軍民
    • Organizer
      北京大学中国社会科学調査センターセミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      中国北京市、北京大学中国社会科学調査センター
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Remarks] 福岡大学研究者情報(研究業績)

    • URL

      https://resweb2.jhk.adm.fukuoka-u.ac.jp/FukuokaUnivHtml/info/4474/R110E.html?P=1582864169981

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 福岡大学経済学部万軍民ホームページ(研究業績)

    • URL

      http://www3.econ.fukuoka-u.ac.jp/~wan/CV_Wan_1May2020.pdf

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 福岡大学研究者情報・研究業績

    • URL

      http://resweb2.jhk.adm.fukuoka-u.ac.jp/FukuokaUnivHtml/info/4474/R110E.html

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2022-01-27  

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