| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
When estimating disaggregate demand models for forecasting, only the most recent data is utilised even when cross-sectional data from multiple time points are available. This is not a good use of the data. This study applied a method, proposed by the author, which improves demand forecasts by utilising data from multiple time points. The study demonstrated that using data from multiple time points, where the number of observations from each time point is smaller, produced statistically significantly better forecasts than using data from the most recent time point. Practical contribution is to improve forecasting performance without any additional cost for the survey.
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